Das EuropÃ¤ische WÃ¤hrungssystem und die geldpolitische Koordination in Europa
Von Hagen, JÃ¼rgen
Geldmengensteuerung mit stochastischem Operationsziel. Zur Interpretation der Politik des Federal Reserve Board seit 1982
Die amerikanischen Budgetdefizite und der Dollarkurs
Der EinfluÃ der Alterssicherung auf die gesamtwirtschaftliche Kapitalbildung
De Haan, J. and Zelhorst, D.
The Empirical Evidence on the Ricardian Equivalence Hypothesis
Bieg, Hartmut and RÃ¼bel, Markus
Ausweis und Bewertung von Devisen- und ZinstermingeschÃ¤ften in Bankbilanzen - Teil II
Rasche, Robert H.
Monetary Policy and Financial Deregulation in the United States
Transformation der Ã¶konomischen Vernunft. Fortschrittsperspektiven der modernen Industriegesellschaft
Nichtbanken als Substitutionskonkurrenten auf dem Bankleistungsmarkt â Eine vergleichende Analyse fÃ¼r das deutsche und US-amerikanische Bankensystem
Wechselkurspolitik in der Planwirtschaft
(Georg J. Dobrovolny)
âThe European Monetary System and Monetary Policy Coordination in Europeâ
This study examines the process of monetary coordination in Europe under differential institutional framework conditions, i. e.
- the present EMS
- a modified EMS with reduced asymmetry in favour of strongcurrency countries
- an EMS with direct monetary policy coordination by Community institutions.
- From the point of view of a really efficient system foundation the two latter variants turn out to be inferior to the present EMS. Truly symmetrical coordination of European monetary policies is thus impossible without the establishment of an autonomous central bank with an unambiguous commitment to stability.
Von Hagen, JÃ¼rgen
âMoney Supply Management with a Stochastic Money Supply Targetâ
Two salient features are characteristic of US monetary policy in the last ten years. After some years of money supply management attempted via short-term interest rate targets, the Federal Reserve Board switched to a management regime in October 1979 focusing on the short-term control of unutilized reserves. In October 1982 a new regime was adopted in which orientational targets have so far played a greater role for the refinancing of loan positions. In the monetary policy discussion on the current regime two different forms of interpretation have emerged. Some authors understand the current regime as the return to short-term interest rate targets, whilst others equate the importance of targets for the refinancing of loan positions with that of previous targets for unutilized reserves. However, both interpretations are unsatisfactory insofar as they are bound to suppose a priori that the Fed has chosen a suboptimal procedure for managing interest rates or money supply. This contribution develops an alternative interpretation avoiding this weakness. The starting point is the observation that the Fed faces a lack of information in the management of money supply via unutilized reserves that has generally been ignored in the presentation of this regime: for institutional reasons the holdings of unutilized reserves currently escape observation. Making optimal use of the information available to the Fed leads to a control regime aiming, as before, at short-term targets for unutilized reserves, which may become a sub-optimal procedure in money supply management via short-term interest rate or refinancing targets.
âThe US Budget Deficit and the Dollar Rateâ
Since it is highly disputed whether there is a close interrelationship between the US budget deficit and the dollar rate, this contribution examines whether plausible theoretical reasons speak against the relevance of US budget policies in the period of an appreciating dollar rate between September 1980 and March 1985 and in the phase of a declining dollar rate that began in April 1985. Another question raised in this paper concerns the importance to be attached to reducing budget deficits in order to cut the deficit on the US current account. It would be a fair assumption for the period of a rising dollar rate that the growing deficits in the Federal budgets raised interest rates and the value of the dollar. However, the question must remain open what relative contribution is to be ascribed to fiscal policy in this context. The combined effects of a restrictive monetary policy, of positive earnings expectations and of an expansionary fiscal policy are responsible for the massive appreciation of the dollar rate. The assumption that money creation, extra saving and capital imports have prevented interest rates from rising can be precluded. The critical element in connexion with international capital movements is the interest elasticity of capital flows. Budget deficits lead to national currency appreciation only when elasticity is high; if it is low, the consequence is depreciation, which would then testify of the irrelevance of the US budget deficits to the dollar rate. When assuming a generally high interest elasticity, it is only logical to conclude that the deficits have been associated with rather minor expansionary effects on National Income. On the other hand, the budget deficits are likely to have been of a rather minor importance in the phase of a declining dollar rate, because a switch from expansionary to clearly restrictive budget policies began in the course of 1987 only. Since the Gramm-Rudman Bill suggests that there has been a trend reversal in budgetary developments since the end of 1985, it is possible that falling interest rate and declining dollar rate expectations have been conducive to an earlier tendency toward a declining dollar rate. The elimination of the US budget deficit on the deficit on current account invariable means for the US Government to pursue a restrictive policy. This objective can be reached much more effectively and at a much higher growth rate by consolidating the budget than by running a restrictive monetary policy so that US policy should focus on reducing budget deficits and on abstaining from monetary policy support of the dollar rate.
âThe Influence of Pension Plans on Overall Capital Formationâ
This contribution discusses within the framework of an inter-generation contract model the influence of different pension plans on overall capital formation. It begins by showing that individual pension plans can only be maintained if a kind of intergeneration contract is observed. It presupposes a correspondingly high capital formation by the younger Generation. Social insurance on a pay-as-you-go basis implies compulsory capital transfer from the younger to the older Generation. It leads to a reduced capital stock per gainfully active person. The effects of this system on the overall consumption potential are determined by the ratio between the interest rate and the population growth rate. The institutional funding principle does not of itself result in any additional capital formation. The latter rather requires a waiver of consumption that goes beyond the transfer obligations deriving from pension claims acquired.
De Haan, J. and Zelhorst, D.
âThe Empirical Evidence on the Ricardian Equivalence Hypothesisâ
In this article the empirical evidence on the Ricardian equivalence (or debt neutrality) hypothesis which is based on consumer behaviour is reviewed. The various testing procedures are critically discussed and the outcomes of the tests are shown schematically. It appears that the results are rather sensitive with regard to the sample period chosen and to minor changes of specification. This is further illustrated for the case of Germany with specifications of the consumption action as suggested by Seater & Mariano and Modigliani et al.
Bieg, Hartmut and RÃ¼bel, Markus
âShowing and Valuating Forward Exchange and Interest Rate Futures Deals in Bank Balance Sheets - Part IIâ
The first part discussed the bases and risks of major forward exchange and interest rate futures deals in terms of banking techniques using them as an example in showing relevant financial presentation practices. This part begins by outlining a concept for presenting risk-bearing commitments involved in forward exchange and interest rate futures deals in credit institutions' annual financial statements. It is proposed to separate the results, unrealized because of interest and exchange rate influences, from all unfunded balance sheet-affecting items and to allocate them to separate abstract valuation units, i. e. foreign exchange and/or fixed-interest positions. They are fully subject to the unit account method of valuation; unfunded exchange/interest rate results are valuated for each currency outside the balance sheet in accordance with largely objectivated procedures and offset against balance sheet results and/or profits insofar as the realization rule and the principle of unequal treatment of losses and income so require. The manner in which this is to be done also depends on the technique of showing specific valuation units of individual balance sheet items. In this context, two approaches - the initial and the current price methods - are applied in the discussion of foreign exchange balances. In view of the great importance of exchange and interest rate commitments to banks and in view of the accounting function of annual financial statements, it is proposed to incorporate two special explanatory instruments (foreign exchange and fixed interest positions) in the annex. For reasons of easier access to the problems, the explanations in the second part of the contribution generalize even further the special aspects stemming from the unfunded nature of futures deals. The third part finally extends the presentation concept to include mutually unfulfilled contracts as well.
Rasche, Robert H.
âMonetary Policy and Financial Deregulation in the United Statesâ
This study examines whether the continuing financial innovation and deregulation that occurred in die United States in the late 1970s and early 1980s was a potential source of significant difficulty for the conduct of monetary policy. The evidence suggests that the problems for policymakers arising from these sources were relatively few, and that the major structural change associated with the introduction of NOW accounts in 1981 could have been detected relatively quickly. This structural change was an increase in the interest elasticity of velocity which is contrary to the prevailing opinion about the likely impact of the introduction of interest bearing transactions accounts on the velocity of transactions money.