Zur Monetarismus-Diskussion in "Kredit und Kapital"
Der Einfluß der Nicht-Banken auf das gesamtwirtschaftliche Geldangebot. Eine empirische Untersuchung im Rahmen der linearen Geldangebotstheorie von Brunner und Meltzer
Die Einflüsse der zentralen Geldumlaufplanung auf Planerfüllung und monetäre Stabilität
Eine keynesianische Erklärung für Friedmans "monetaristische" Beobachtungen
Zur Rolle der Interbankbeziehungen
Die Entwicklung der Euro-Geld- und Kapitalmärkte seit 1973
Ein ökonometrisches Vierteljahresmodell des Geld- und Kreditsektors für die Bundesrepublik Deutschland
Kleinmann, Werner und Bechthold, Rainer
Kommentar zur Fusionskontrolle, nach deutschem und EWG-Kartellrecht
Die Kontrolle internationaler Kapitalbewegungen und
Kapitalverkehrskontrollen und ihre Wirkung. Eine Analyse der Maßnahmen in der Bundesrepublik Deutschland
Erfolgskontrolle finanzpolitischer Stabilisierungsmaßnahmen
Geld und Vermögen in makroökonomischen Modellen
On the Monetarism Debate in "Kredit und Kapital"
In this article, I have attempted a general review of the monetarism debate which developed in "Kredit und Kapital" following the paper by Thomas Mayer, "The Structure of Monetarism". In doing so, I have proceeded from the view that the monetarism debate like all big debates in the history of political economy - among which I feel the monetarism debate can be counted even now - has not only a theoretical, analytical aspect, but also a practical political one. Accordingly, I have systematized the results of the debate on the one hand from the theoretical, analytical standpoint and on the other from the practical, political standpoint. In summarizing the theoretical debate, my prime concern was to tighten up a little Thomas Mayer's somewhat loose interrelationship among his first four main theoretical theses. To this end I have shown that the quantity of money can be ascribed a greater influence on the price trend only if - in line with Mayer's 2nd, 3rd and 4th theses - the demand of private economic entities for money and goods is assigned a relatively high degree of stability and if a high diffusion capacity of the system for exogenous impulses is assumed. As the presentation of the contrary Keynesian position has been relatively disconnected in the debate up to now, I have formulated the chief theoretical propositions of the Keynesian into four main theses in the same way Mayer has done for the monetarists. Mayer depicts the economic policy theses of the monetarists - though in a relatively loose form - as the consequence of their theoretical conceptions. Accordingly, he relegates the theses based more on value judgments to the end of his list. In contrast, it is my view that fundamental economic policy theses are always set up on certain value conceptions; I have therefore attempted to outline progressively the economic policy conceptions of the monetarists and fiscalists in precisely the reserve order from the basic regulatory policy conceptions to their diverging attitudes to the value of money and unemployment, and on the monetary policy arrangements.
The Influence of Non-Banks on the Macroeconomic Money on Supply
For some years now, money supply models of the Brunner-Meltzer category have enjoyed steadily growing esteem. For all that, the so-called linear version of this type of models has been largely ignored, presumably mainly because up to the present there has been a lack of attempts to transform the basic hypothesis developed by Brunner and Meltzer into a structure that can be used for test and forecasting purposes. The peculiarity of the linear model approach lies in the fact that the portfolio transactions of commercial banks and non-banks which affect the supply of money are covered by behaviour functions which are oriented throughout to the pattern of the Keynesian consumption function. For instance, the demand of non-banks for cash and time deposits at banks is split up into an autonomous and an induced component (induced by changes in the volume of money), and simultaneously it is assumed that the relation between changes in the quantity of money and those in the holding of cash, time deposits and savings deposits is roughly constant over time. lf we proceed from the Situation in the Federal Republic of Germany, the behaviour functions of the Brunner-Meltzer type seem to describe the investment decisions of nonbank in an acceptable form. However, the autonomous demand for cash and for time and savings deposits is subject to considerable fluctuations, but it can be shown that the latter may be adequately explained by changes in the national income, wealth, market interest rates and the macroeconomic price ratios. Thus, the linear money supply model is capable of making an original and simultaneously an empirically important contribution to the solution of money supply problems.
The Influence of Central Planning of the Circulation of Money on Target - Achievement and Monetary Stability
The monetary system of the socialist countries of eastern Europe is frequently regarded as a relatively passive area of planning that is dependent on quantitative planning and exerts influence of its own only to a slight extent. But ever since the socialist economy has been comprehended as a system in which "good-money relationship" continue (for the time being) to be due components of it and the plants, in their capacity as "socialist producers of goods", also possess latitude for decisions which, though subject to the overriding plan targets, they utilize to orient themselves to their own objectives, it is also theoretically manifest that the monetary system and the monetary instruments exert influence on the economy, which becomes evident primarily in the furthering or hindering of fulfilment of the plan and monetary stability. The effectiveness of the monetary system is marked by a series of institutional peculiarities, which are examined here in the light of money circulation planning. The theoretical foundations of central planning of the circulation of money are relatively poorly developed. Only gradually is the conception being overcome that the volume of credit is limited by the deposits - although in practice a limitation of this nature has hardly ever became effective. Up to the present, there is no monetary policy with the goal of macroeconomic control; only in the microeconomic sphere are the banks expected to employ their control and influence potential in the interest of plan fulfilment and efficiency improvement. The cash circulation, which is largely separate from the circulation of book money, is controlled by the balance of cash receipts and disbursements and the cash plan of the state bank. Only the latter has the character of a directive, but can hardly be adapted at short notice to stability requirements, while the balances of cash receipts and disbursements have only the character of forecasts especially an the disbursements side. The payment of wages according to plan and their augmentation by way of additional wage funds and bonus payments is, of course, a mean to further fulfilment of the plan, but is a threat to stability when plan fulfilment does not match demand for goods with respect to quantity and structure. The feeding of cash into the circulatory system is therefore carried out according to plan as a rule, but measured against the real sales possibilities it tends rather to be too liberal. The fact that matching is not successful is therefore due, not to the issuing of cash, but to the Disproportion of output with respect to quantity, assortment and quality. In the area of payments between plants and between the plants and the government, that is in book money circulation, planning of the money flows is based solely an the credit balance which - just like the granting of individual credits - is strictly oriented to the plan. Credits are intended to assist execution of the plan; also in the event of financing difficulties resulting from non compliance with the plan, credit granting with the object of pushing the plan through becomes flexible and hence tends rather to endanger stability. In practice, financing is a minor problem for the plants, although there are bureaucratic impediments and under certain circumstances sanctions may be imposed. This means that in this respect, too, the monetary system tends to be soft, although by no means actively inflationary. Only by stringent planning of production and the distribution of goods can open instability be avoided - except an the market for novelties and an the informal markets. Scarcities in many sectors of the means-of-production sphere are here, too, a sign of partially dammed up Inflation.
A Keynesian Explanation of Friedman's "Monetaristic" Observations
The object of this study is to explain Milton Friedman's empirical observations, which, with the help of his new approach to the quantity theory, resulted in a "monetaristic-counterrevolution" in macro-theory, by means of a theory of Keynesian orientation. This is done with the help of the fourth money-holding motive, Keynes' business motive. lf the central bank pursues a policy of levelling interest rates, with the help of the business motive it is possible to show that changes in the quantity of money precede the changes in real magnitudes. The changes in real magnitudes are foreshadowed, so to speak, by the changes in money magnitudes. Contrary to the monetarists view, the empirical data do not contradict the Keynesian theory, but in fact corroborate it.
On the Role of Interbank Relations
In 1971, the German Bundesbank registered a change in the criteria of the banks for assessing the necessary measure of liquidity, when, unlike in the past, they further expanded credits granted despite a marked reduction of the free liquidity reserves. The Bundesbank believed it had found an explanation for the change in bank behaviour in the simultaneous increase in interbank transactions. These findings gave occasion to determine more precisely the location of interbank relations within the framework of monetary theory. The point of departure is provided by the controversy between the liquidity theory of money and quantity theory. On the one hand there is the question of how far near monies act as money substitutes and influence the circulation velocity of money. Then again, it must be examined whether, say, the quantity of money should not be regarded as an endogenous magnitude, the level of which passively adjusts to the "needs" of the economy. Interbank transactions may increase the degree of utilization of a given monetary base by bringing about a balance between deficits and surpluses of central bank money. An increase in the money-creating capacity of the banking system with the monetary base remaining unchanged occurs also by the transposition of central bank money via interbank relations among banks with different minimum reserve and cash withdrawal rates. The influence of interbank transactions on the level of the monetary base itself is to be found in their quality as substitutes for open-market operations of the central bank; in this connection, particularly the relations between branch or member banks and their respective central institutions also play an important role. The monetary base is expanded when the banks regard interbank claims as good substitutes for recourse to the central bank and consequently take up increased central bank credits. All in all, the conclusion will have to be drawn that the increase in interbank relations in the Federal Republic of Germany from 1970 onwards has brought about, not only an improvement in the liquidity situation of individual banks, but also liquidity creation from the standpoint of the banking system as a whole. A situation in which the free liquidity reserves are approaching zero sets an objective limit to this trend; on the other hand, however, this state of affairs cannot be taken as evidence against the expansive influence of interbank relations on the liquidity situation of the entire banking system.
The Development of the Euro Money and Capital Markets since 1973
The development of the Euro money and capital markets since 1973 has been determined by the worldwide introduction of flexible exchange rates (March 1973), the world economic recession in 1974/75, the reduction of restrictions on capital movements and, above all, the oil crisis and its consequences for the international balance-of-payments situation. In the meanwhile, the volume of the Euro-markets has increased incessantly, though not so rapidly as at the beginning of the seventies, and in 1976 reached an order of magnitude of about 300,000 mill. dollars (money markets) and 60,000 mill. dollars (capital market) respectively. The chief problem at present is whether "private" financing of balances of payments via the Euromarkets can be sustained at the current level, even though this was initially regarded as a stabilizing factor in the world economy. For the structure of payments on current account will tend - presumably - for a long time to come towards substantial imbalances between OPEC and OECD countries, among OECD countries and vis-à-vis oil-importing developing countries. "Private" balance-of-payments financing should therefore be replaced, because it is granted without imposing economic policy obligations, by financing through international organizations (IMF). Better mutual adjustment of current accounts seems desirable, though substantial difficulties would, of course, have to be overcome.