Zahlungsbilanzstruktur, Leitwährungsfunktion und die Zukunft des Dollars
Andersen, Torben M. and Sorensen, Jan Rose
Uncertain Exchange Rate Policies and Interest Rate Determination
Bewertung von Länderrisiken durch Optionspreismethoden
Theorien über Schalterstürme und geeignete Gegenmaßnahmen: Eine kritische Analyse
Kaiser, Helmut and Spahn, P. Bernd
Verteilungspolitische Beurteilung der Steuerreformen in der Ära Stoltenberg. Einige Klarstellungen
Van Suntum, Ulrich
Verteilungsneutralität und Leistungsfähigkeitsprinzip als Beurteilungsmaßstab für die Steuerpolitik. Antwort auf Kaiser/ Spahn
Die ersten vier Wochen der deutschen Terminbörse (Teil I)
Konstanz Seminar on Monetary Theory and Monetary Policy 1991
Bankvertragsrecht (Werner Terpitz)
"Balance-of-Payments Pattern, Reserve-Currency Function and the Future of the US Dollar"
The quality of a currency as an instrument for safeguarding the value of property may be expressed by the expected ups and downs of its exchange rate. In the last analysis, this quality depends on the relative scarcity of money and, thus, on the national government's monetary policy. By contrast, there is not of necessity any such relation between net current-balance deficits/surpluses and the quality of a currency as an instrument for safeguarding the value of property. Reserve currencies are at the top of the international monetary hierarchy and represent the best instrument for keeping the value of property stable. Current-balance deficits run by reserve-currency countries may reflect an international interest in holding the currency concerned. Reserve-currency countries' deficits on current account stabilize a monetary system since they take the explosives out from a mercantilistic zero-sum game played by non-reserve currency countries. However, reserve-currency countries are in a position to overexploit their functions by contracting external debts in their own currencies and by subsequently devaluing their currencies. In spite of the fact that the USA's role has lost in weight in relative terms, internationally, the US dollar will continue to be the number-one currency in the world for quite some time to come. The US dollar's instability since the 1970s is indicative not so much of the erosion of the international role of the dollar, but of the overexploitation of the US dollar's reserve-currency function through a policy of "benign neglect" pursued by the US Government.
Andersen, Torben M. and Sorensen, Jan Rose
"Uncertain Exchange Rate Policies and Interest Rate Determination"
We analyse how an uncertain exchange rate policy affects interest rate differences between countries participating in a managed exchange rate system. It is shown that the interest rate of a small and open economy always has a positive risk premium relative to the interest rate of a big and open economy. The paper explores the complex deviation from the uncovered interest rate parity condition implied by positive risk Specifically, it turns out that the interest rate is increasing in the potential size of a devaluation, but a higher probability of a depreciation does not necessarily increase the interest rate, since expectations and variances may be affected in different directions.
"Evaluation of Country Risks by Means of Option Price Methods"
The aim of this contribution is to present an option price model for the determination of spreads (interest premiums) in the case of lendings to foreign governments. The starting point is a stylised model for the tying- up of debt rescheduling packages. This model allows the determination of the market value of a country's foreign debts by means of option price theory- methods. Conceptually, this approach is based on the question as to what amount of insurance premium a lender would be prepared to pay in order to be able to move out of any lending to a foreign government at par. Such amount of insurance premium subsequently allows the spread to be estimated for a lending transaction under which the lender does not have and does not use the possibility of moving out at par. This contribution ends on a discussion of the question as to whether and, if so, to what extent the described model is capable of furnishing results that are relevant for practical financial management purposes and useful in quantitative terms.
"Bank-Run Theories and Appropriate Defences: A Critical Analysis"
Runs on banks play a key role in the reasons given in Justification of the way in which the credit industry is regulated at present. The opposite view is to be found in the literature on free banking which maintains that runs on banks represent a phenomenon caused by regulation in the first place. It is to be regretted that the formal analysis of models capable of explaining runs on banks still leaves much to be desired. The leading model is the one developed by Diamond and Dybvig. It is exemplified that the validity of the analysis presented by those two authors suffers from a major deficiency. The most popular conclusion derived from this analysis, i.e. the view that deposit insurance schemes in particular represent the optimal approach cannot be maintained. Wallace attempted to remedy this deficiency and, in doing so, pushed the analysis of the structure proposed by Diamond and Dybvig an essential step ahead. Wallace's findings suggest that a partial stop of payments combined with the threat of a complete stop of payments in the event of deposit withdrawals in excess of a specified upper limit would suffice for preventing bank runs from coming about. This conclusion is corroborated by a number of arguments repeatedly mentioned in the literature on free banking. The most important contribution of this paper is proof to the effect that just a slight change in the model analyzed by Wallace suffice to make runs on banks possible again. His conclusion that the threat of payment stops would prevent such runs from coming about is little robust therefore. This complies with the experience gained so far which suggests that neither threats actual payment stops have been sufficient for preventing runs on banks.