Makroökonomik der Kapitalmangel-Arbeitslosigkeit
Zur "Kausalität" von Geldmenge und Sozialprodukt
Die Existenz einer wirksamen Geldpolitik bei rationalen Erwartungen und starren Güterpreisen
Preisniveaustabilität durch kompetitive Geldsysteme?
Staatsverschuldung und langfristiger Zinssatz in einem Modell effizienter Märkte und rationaler Erwartungen. Eine empirische Untersuchung für die Bundesrepublik Deutschland
Jüttner, D. Johannes
Public Debt and Asset Preferences
Zur Steuerung des Zinsänderungsrisikos in Kreditinstituten
Liberalisierung der Finanzmärkte und Ersparnisbildung in Indonesien
Chalmovsky, Luis Esteban
Der internationale Zahlungsverkehr und die Devisenmärkte in der volkswirtschaftlichen Theorie und in der bankbetrieblichen Praxis
Supply-Side Policy. Theoretische Grundlagen und prozeßpolitische Konsistenz
The New Classical Macroeconomics. Conversations with New Classical Economists and Their Opponents
Jensen, Michael C. and Smith, Clifford W. Jr. (Hrsg.)
The Modern Theory of Corporate Finance
(Jan Pieter Krahnen)
Macroeconomic of Unemployment Due to Lack of Capital
The analysis is performed within the framework of a growing economy. Firms employ capital and labour to produce an homogeneous good. The labour supply grows at an exogenous rate. Initially full employment prevails. If, now, the propensity to save diminishes, the formation of capital is reduced. Thereupon the wage rate must fall; otherwise there will be a danger of unemployment. Assuming that the wage rate is rigid, unemployment due to lack of capital occurs. The unemployment rate rises for period after period. If the propensity to save diminishes still further, the increase in unemployment is accelerated. Simultaneously the growth of the economy slows down. Basically the same result occurs in the following situations: increase in public borrowing, government buying or the interest rate abroad.
On the "Causality" of Money Supply and National Product
Exogeneity tests are empirical methods with which reciprocally assumed dependencies among two or a small number of variables are checked with respect to their empirical correctness. They proceed from the deliberation that the future cannot influence the past ("post hoc ergo propter hoc"). The use and evaluation of exogeneity tests, however, are not without problems. Despite numerous difficulties, exogeneity tests have recently been used frequently also for the Federal Republic of Germany with respect to the interrelationships between the money supply and income trends, though up to now not for the central bank money supply that is used by the German Bundesbank as a monetary, intermediate objective, and also not for closed periods in which active money supply control was practiced by the German Bundesbank. The test results presented here indicate that in the period under investigation (1973 - 1984) fluctuations in the money supply preceded corresponding changes in the trend of the national product and were suitable for forecasting national product trends; the hypothesis of a "reverse" relationship could be demonstrated as false in the majority of cases for this period. More broadly defined money supply Aggregates such as the central bank money supply and M 3 showed in these tests greater suitability with regard to intermediate objectives than the more narrowly defined money supply magnitude M 1. In comparison, from the studies carried out M 2 appears to be unsuitable as an intermediate objective. The exogeneity of the money supply in the sense of a simple "monetaristic" interpretation of the monetary transmission process, where interdependent economic relationships prevail, cannot be substantiated without theoretical deduction or recourse to structural models with far-reaching a priori restrictions. Hence, the results of such tests should be regarded as preliminary studies f or more far-reaching investigations, but not as methods for checking conceptions of economic theory.
The Existence of an Effective Monetary Policy under Rational Expectations and Rigid Goods Prices
Within the framework of an elementary macromodel with rational expectations and rigid goods prices it is shown that deflationary policies result in a decline of the aver- age production level even when their effect has been correctly anticipated. Every systematic inflationary policy, on the other hand, is allocation-neutral.
Price Level Stability by Means of Competitive Monetary Systems?
The object of the article is to review the demand introduced into the debate by Klein und Hayek for abolition of the currency-issuing monopoly of government and for authorization of competing, private issuing banks. In Section II, several arguments for and against this proposal are discussed, doubts as to the functional efficiency of competition among private banks proving preponderant. With the help of a simple analytical approach, Section III examines whether a finite price level is reconcilable with the existence of private issuing banks or whether the privatization of currency production would lead to sustained inflation. In the proposed model framework it proves that either specific parameter constellations obtain or special model versions must be applicable in order to avoid a sustained inflationary process. From this it follows that in all other cases the desired objective of price level stability aimed at with the proposal of private currency production cannot be achieved but that in the long run the target will be missed.
Public Debt and Long-term Interest Rate in a Model of Efficient Markets and Rational Expectations. An Empirical Study for the Federal Republic of Germany
This paper deals with the determinants of long-term interest rates. Especially the effect of public debt is analysed. Theoretical basis of this study is the theory of efficient markets and rational expectations: Only unexpected changes of causal factors produce interest rate variations. Unanticipated changes of gross national product, government expenditure, public debt, inflation, money supply and US interest rate are generated using uni- and multivariate autoregressive models. Empirically no significant effect of public debt on asset returns is found. The inflation rate and the Treasury bill rate in USA are the most important determinants of German interest rates.
On Control of the Risk of Interest-Rate Changes in Banks
Up to now, no uniformly recognized concept exists for controlling the risks of interest-rate changes in banks. In banking practice, preference is given to those methods of controlling the risks of interest-rate changes that are oriented to cost and planning accounting, while the theoretically well-founded models (e.g. duration analysis) are rejected as a rule on account of too great complexity or premisses remote from reality. In this study it is shown that duration analysis can definitely be used for decision oriented control of risks of interest-rate changes in banks. Following a brief description of the control of risks of interest-rate changes in banks with duration analysis, the most frequently advanced criticisms of this method are dealt with and relativized. Objections to the restrictive assumptions of the duration models, such as uniform market interest rate and one-time interest-rate change in the form of a shift in the flat market interest rate curve, have already been refuted in the literature by modified approaches. The present article shows that also the points of criticism based on the special field of application must likewise be relativized. Interest-rate differences which are not due to maturity differences can be allowed for adequately in an extended approach. Variable risks of interest-rate changes deriving from differing (informal) fixed-interest periods can be covered in duration analysis without modifying the model. If variable risks of interest-rate changes occur due to differing lending and borrowing interest-rate elasticities, this specific type of interest-rate risk can be controlled also when using duration analysis via the periodical interest surplus or the return on equity. With the control of the interest surplus in supplementation of control of the duration index, the danger of an interest deficit will be banished in a subsequent period with an overall positive solvency effect. Duration analysis, which can dispense with detailed interest-rate forecasts completely, assists in particular payment-flow-oriented cost and planning systems in banks.
Liberalization of the Financial Markets and Savings in Indonesia
Especially for development countries who already have high external debts, it is urgently necessary to mobilize more domestic savings and to improve the efficiency of domestic development financing. At present, a growth-oriented adjustment to deteriorated, overall world economic conditions appears to be rendered difficult in many countries by the fact that conditions of financial repression prevail. The consequence is that the supply of investable funds remains inadequate and the savers give preference to very short-term forms of investment. The hypothesis that liberalization of the financial markets has a positive influence on savings is tested empirically, using the example of the Indonesian financial reform of June 1983. It is shown that the commercial banks reacted quickly to the changed overall financial conditions by making efforts to mobilize private bank deposits. The impact of improved interest-rate incentives on saving behaviour in Indonesia was determined with the help of trend estimates. The analysis makes it clear that the savers responded at short notice by switching their savings to a marked extent to longer-term time deposits. These structural effects have improved the efficiency of Indonesian development financing substantially. However, it was not possible to increase total financial savings. The aim, therefore, is to continue and perfect the financial liberalization course in order, in the long run, to overcome the dualistic structure of the financial markets in Indonesia.