Neumann,
Manfred J. M. and Klein, Martin
Probleme der
Theorie effizienter Märkte und ihrer empirischen Ãberprüfung
Mühlhaupt,
Ludwig and Schierenbeck, Henner and Flechsig, Rolf
Die
Planung des optimalen Kreditportefeuilles einer Universalbank (II)
Scheidl,
Karl
Komponentensteuerung
versus Gewinnsteuerung im Bankbetrieb - Aspekte der Lenkung dezentraler
Einheiten -
Kaufmann, Hugo
M.
International Stagflation and the
"Locomotive Hypothesis"
Olivera, Julio H. G.
On Passive Money, Exchange Rates and Monetary
Leadership
Gleske, Leonard
Die
Devisenpolitik der Deutschen Bundesbank. Interventionen am DM-$-Markt und im Europäischen
Währungssystem sowie geldmarktorientierte Devisentransaktionen
Yannacopoulos, Nicos A.
The Positively Sloped IS Curve and the Balance
of Payments : An Extension of Cebulaâs Model
Â
Â
Teusch, Friedhelm
Zinsoptimale
Unternehmensfinanzierung
Maier, Gerhard
Das
US-Geldmengenrätsel: Eine Herausforderung an Theorie und Politik
Immenga, Ulrich
Beteiligungen von Banken an anderen Wirtschaftszweigen (Günter Erner)
Henschel, Helmut
Wirtschaftsprognosen (Karl-Heinz Dignas)
Spahn, Heinz-Peter
Die Stabilitätspolitik des Sachverständigenrates. Zur Abhängigkeit ökonomischer
Paradigmenwechsel von wirtschaftspolitischen Handlungsimperativen
(Johann Welsch)
Kloten, Norbert und Krelle, Wilhelm und Meier-Preschany, Manfred
Beiträge zur Geldtheorie und Geldpolitik (Norbert Kleinheyer)
Lang, E. und Koch, W. A. S.
Staatsverschuldung â Staatsbankrott? (Renate Ohr)
Neumann,
Manfred J. M. and Klein, Martin
âProblems of the
Theory of Efficient Markets and the Empirical Testing of itâ
This article
ventilates various, theoretical and empirical problems of efficient markets.
Following a brief Introduction to Fama's theoretical groundwork, an attempt is
made to reformulate the concept of the information efficiency of markets, using
the marginal costs of information procurement to distinguish among centrally
published, decentrally published and temporarily monopolized information. The
new approach enables an economically substantiated distinction to be drawn
between high and low information efficiency and, in addition, to reject the
famous information paradox as a spurious problem. The critical discussion of
hypothesis tests in the second part of the article culminates in the conclusion
that all tests of the hypothesis of high Information efficiency are invariably
only weak, that is, not very restrictive tests.
Mühlhaupt, Ludwig
and Schierenbeck, Henner and Flechsig, Rolf
âThe Planning of optimal Credit Portfolio of a Mixed-Banking Institutionâ
This paper develops
a model for determining the optimal credit portfolio of a mixed-banking
Institution which aims at profit maximization. The first part works out the
chief determinants of the maximum latitude for credits, that is to say, the
excess reserves available in the planned period, the possibility of internal
offsetting of outpayment dispositions and the principles of the Federal
Supervisory Office for the Banking Business on the net worth and liquidity of
banks, and explains their quantitative effects in each case with examples.
Building up on these findings, a model is developed for simultaneous
determination of the optimal credit portfolio. While model variant A includes
only one constraint to ensure solvency where internal offsetting is given, this
variant is then extended, first by principle 1 (Model B)and then by Principles
II and III (Model C), and finally all restrictions together are included in
model variant D. The alternative and combined consideration of the principles
of the Federal
Supervisory Office
enables their impact on the optimal combination of credit alternatives to be
explained clearly. Hence the results of the model provide important information
for planning credit and loan business.
Scheidl, Karl
âComponent Control
versus Profit Control in Banking - Aspects of the Control of Decentral Unitsâ
The paper discusses
the issue of whether the rating and control of bank branches should be carried
out with the help of their profit per period or -to avoid the disadvantage of
"external assessment" by way of inter-branch accounting prices -
preferably on the basis of earnings components such as business volume,
business terms and operating expenses. Interest centres therefore around the
problem of how the various earnings components can be consolidated into a
uniform rating and control criterion.
From this
standpoint, a component control system found in banking practice is examined as
to its suitability for guiding a branch manager's activities in the direction
of the bank's overall objective.
The arguments
presented here lead to the conclusion that the rating criteria applied in the
investigated control system are unsuitable, because they do not give an
adequate picture of the branch's contribution to the results of the bank as a
whole.
Kaufmann, Hugo M.
âInternational Stagflation and the "Locomotive
Hypothesisâ
The second 'oil shock' of 1978 - 1979 made a replay of
the economic consequences of the first oil shock of 1973 - 1974 possible, even
though it was not possible to predict the exact impact of and reactions to the
second oil price hike.
It is thus of interest to compare the cyclical
conditions of the major Western industrialized countries (plus Japan) at the
beginning of the supply shocks and to analyse policies and policy mistakes in
the wake of the first external shock. Foremost among the mistaken ideas, which
served as guidance to a solution was the 'locomotive argument' according to
which countries, which were designated as 'strong' countries, were expected to
solve their own and the weaker countries' economic woes by engaging in expansionary
domestic economic policies. It was argued that expansionary policies in the
former group of countries would hardly lead to additional Inflation, since,
they too, not only the weak countries, operated substantially below capacity
levels.
After having highlighted the main features of the
locomotive argument, this study questions the validity of the theoretical
underpinnings of that hypothesis.
The theoretical basis of the 'locomotive argument' was
Keynesian and confidence in fine-tuning economies prevailed. The study
investigates whether the premises were justified in light of developments in
the real world and economic theories. What happened to the effectiveness of
economic policy under different exchange rate regimes, to money illusion, to
the unemployment-Inflation trade-off, to estimations of unused productive
capacity, and to the emphasis on demand rather than supply creation? The
determination of whether demand or supply ought to be stimulated has
implications on what can be expected to envolve from national and international
policy decisions.
The locomotive argument paid too little attention to
the implications of the flexible exchange rate system upon exchange rate
effects of domestic policies, capital movements, and the international
transmission of domestic economic policies. The basis for country
classification into weak and strong ones is of dubious validity, and the
J-curve phenomenon further complicates categorization. Current account
imbalances may have to be seen in light of stock adjustments. Moreover,
exchange-rate and current-account determination are not unidirectional - a fact
too easily ignored in balance of payments interpretations.
Olivera, Julio H. G.
âOn Passive Money, Exchange Rates and Monetary Leadershipâ
In this paper the relation is examined between the variability of the exchange
rate and the national control over the domestic money supply under the
hypothesis that the international money stock is not a datum but is continually
adjusted to market demand (the "needs of trade criterion" or
"demand standard"). It is shown that, under this hypothesis, one and
only one country may determine both its national money supply and its exchange
rate in international monetary units, whereas all the other countries must
choose between fixing their money supplies and pegging their exchange rates. It
is verified, moreover, that the monetary mechanisms associated with the
resulting world equilibrium are qualitatively stable, a property which, under
otherwise identical assumptions, does not obtain if the international money
supply is rigid.
Gleske, Leonard
âThe Foreign Exchange Policy of the "Deutsche Bundesbank'â
The present exchange rate system of "managed floating"
combines flexibility vis-a-vis the U.S. dollar and other major currencies with
a regional fixed rate system such as the EMS. The longer-term underlying trend
of exchange rate developments is nowadays determined by more factors than just
purchasing power relationships. These other factors -such as interest rate
differentials, the balance of payments situation and the overall political
climate - may be of just as fundamental importance for exchange rate formation
as differences in inflation rates. By intervening in the foreign exchange
market central banks try to contain exchange rate movements, which frequently
overshoot the basic trends determined in this way. The impact of such
Intervention on monetary policy must be duly taken into account.
The Bundesbank intervenes in the DM/$ market and within the EMS.
Interventions in the DM/$ market are optional and primarily intended to smooth
exchange rate fluctuations. In the European Monetary System, by contrast,
unlimited intervention is obligatory once the bilateral intervention points
have been reached. Interventions are in principle in member currencies only -
specifically, wherever the limit rates have been reached. In addition to
obligatory interventions, "intramarginal" interventions are possible,
they may be made before the limit rates have been reached and are subject to
the agreement of the partner central banks.
Besides its exchange-rate-oriented interventions in the foreign exchange
market, the Bundesbank has concluded exchange swaps and exchange-based
repurchase agreements on a considerable scale since 1979 in order to influence
the money market and bank liquidity. They have proved to be a particularly
flexible instrument for the short-term control of the money market. Judging
from past experience, these money-market-oriented transactions - which can be
effected at short notice, in precisely defined amounts, and with virtually any
desired maturities - have no unwelcome repercussions on the foreign exchange
market, or at least no effects other than those associated with all liquidity
measures.
Yannacopoulos, Nicos A.
âThe Positively Sloped IS-Curve and the Balance of Payments - An
Extension of Cebula's Modelâ
This paper deals with the effects of monetary and
fiscal policy on the balance of payments within the framework of Cebula's
model, under a fixed exchange rate regime, and compares them with the results
obtained by Barrows for the Silber-Barrows model.
It is found that the different assumptions on which
Cebula's and Silber-Barrows model are based affect only the conditions under
which an expansionary monetary policy affects the balance of payments. The
conditions for the effects of the fiscal policy remain the same in both models.
Reports
Teusch, Friedhelm
âOptimal-interest Financing
of the Firmâ
At Ruhrkohle AG, an optimal-interest financing model has been
developed,
which covers the net financial requirements for the medium-term planning
period with the most favourable net interest outlay. Simultaneously, important
constraints (solvency at all times, upper debt limit, no transformation of
maturities) are always met, but observance of balance-sheet indicators is not
mandatory. The input parameters comprise the balance on the financing account
resulting from management planning and the anticipated amount and structure of
interest.
The solution to the model is developed stepwise with the object of
meeting a given volume of financial requirements with minimum interest expense.
By varying the assumptions, it can be shown what financing strategies still
give an optimal interest burden when adjusted to changed interest expectations
or financial needs. Further development of the model in the direction of
simultaneous optimization of investments and financing debts is conceivable.
Maier, Gerhard
âThe US Money Quantity
Puzzle - A Challenge to Theory and Policy â
In the USA, the definitions
of the quantity of money used hitherto are obsolete because monetary
innovations broaden the spectrurn of liquid assets and lower transaction costs.
As long as this process persists, the Federal Reserve System is compelled to
adopt a trial-and-error procedure in redefining the money-quantity aggregates.
In addition, monetary policy is rendered more difficult because the
macroeconomic impact of the innovations cannot be definitively defined. On the
one hand they generate an expansive Impulse, since they release central bank
money, but on the other also a restrictive one, since they make the holding of
financial assets more attractive.