Manfred J. M. and Klein, Martin
Probleme der Theorie effizienter Märkte und ihrer empirischen Überprüfung
Ludwig and Schierenbeck, Henner and Flechsig, Rolf
Die Planung des optimalen Kreditportefeuilles einer Universalbank (II)
International Stagflation and the "Locomotive Hypothesis"
Olivera, Julio H. G.
Yannacopoulos, Nicos A.
Beteiligungen von Banken an anderen Wirtschaftszweigen (Günter Erner)
Wirtschaftsprognosen (Karl-Heinz Dignas)
Die Stabilitätspolitik des Sachverständigenrates. Zur Abhängigkeit ökonomischer Paradigmenwechsel von wirtschaftspolitischen Handlungsimperativen
Kloten, Norbert und Krelle, Wilhelm und Meier-Preschany, Manfred
Beiträge zur Geldtheorie und Geldpolitik (Norbert Kleinheyer)
Lang, E. und Koch, W. A. S.
Staatsverschuldung Staatsbankrott? (Renate Ohr)
Neumann, Manfred J. M. and Klein, Martin
Problems of the Theory of Efficient Markets and the Empirical Testing of it
This article ventilates various, theoretical and empirical problems of efficient markets. Following a brief Introduction to Fama's theoretical groundwork, an attempt is made to reformulate the concept of the information efficiency of markets, using the marginal costs of information procurement to distinguish among centrally published, decentrally published and temporarily monopolized information. The new approach enables an economically substantiated distinction to be drawn between high and low information efficiency and, in addition, to reject the famous information paradox as a spurious problem. The critical discussion of hypothesis tests in the second part of the article culminates in the conclusion that all tests of the hypothesis of high Information efficiency are invariably only weak, that is, not very restrictive tests.
and Schierenbeck, Henner and Flechsig, Rolf
The Planning of optimal Credit Portfolio of a Mixed-Banking Institution
This paper develops a model for determining the optimal credit portfolio of a mixed-banking Institution which aims at profit maximization. The first part works out the chief determinants of the maximum latitude for credits, that is to say, the excess reserves available in the planned period, the possibility of internal offsetting of outpayment dispositions and the principles of the Federal Supervisory Office for the Banking Business on the net worth and liquidity of banks, and explains their quantitative effects in each case with examples. Building up on these findings, a model is developed for simultaneous determination of the optimal credit portfolio. While model variant A includes only one constraint to ensure solvency where internal offsetting is given, this variant is then extended, first by principle 1 (Model B)and then by Principles II and III (Model C), and finally all restrictions together are included in model variant D. The alternative and combined consideration of the principles of the Federal
Supervisory Office enables their impact on the optimal combination of credit alternatives to be explained clearly. Hence the results of the model provide important information for planning credit and loan business.
Component Control versus Profit Control in Banking - Aspects of the Control of Decentral Units
The paper discusses the issue of whether the rating and control of bank branches should be carried out with the help of their profit per period or -to avoid the disadvantage of "external assessment" by way of inter-branch accounting prices - preferably on the basis of earnings components such as business volume, business terms and operating expenses. Interest centres therefore around the problem of how the various earnings components can be consolidated into a uniform rating and control criterion.
From this standpoint, a component control system found in banking practice is examined as to its suitability for guiding a branch manager's activities in the direction of the bank's overall objective.
The arguments presented here lead to the conclusion that the rating criteria applied in the investigated control system are unsuitable, because they do not give an adequate picture of the branch's contribution to the results of the bank as a whole.
Kaufmann, Hugo M.
International Stagflation and the "Locomotive Hypothesis
The second 'oil shock' of 1978 - 1979 made a replay of the economic consequences of the first oil shock of 1973 - 1974 possible, even though it was not possible to predict the exact impact of and reactions to the second oil price hike.
It is thus of interest to compare the cyclical conditions of the major Western industrialized countries (plus Japan) at the beginning of the supply shocks and to analyse policies and policy mistakes in the wake of the first external shock. Foremost among the mistaken ideas, which served as guidance to a solution was the 'locomotive argument' according to which countries, which were designated as 'strong' countries, were expected to solve their own and the weaker countries' economic woes by engaging in expansionary domestic economic policies. It was argued that expansionary policies in the former group of countries would hardly lead to additional Inflation, since, they too, not only the weak countries, operated substantially below capacity levels.
After having highlighted the main features of the locomotive argument, this study questions the validity of the theoretical underpinnings of that hypothesis.
The theoretical basis of the 'locomotive argument' was Keynesian and confidence in fine-tuning economies prevailed. The study investigates whether the premises were justified in light of developments in the real world and economic theories. What happened to the effectiveness of economic policy under different exchange rate regimes, to money illusion, to the unemployment-Inflation trade-off, to estimations of unused productive capacity, and to the emphasis on demand rather than supply creation? The determination of whether demand or supply ought to be stimulated has implications on what can be expected to envolve from national and international policy decisions.
The locomotive argument paid too little attention to the implications of the flexible exchange rate system upon exchange rate effects of domestic policies, capital movements, and the international transmission of domestic economic policies. The basis for country classification into weak and strong ones is of dubious validity, and the J-curve phenomenon further complicates categorization. Current account imbalances may have to be seen in light of stock adjustments. Moreover, exchange-rate and current-account determination are not unidirectional - a fact too easily ignored in balance of payments interpretations.
Optimal-interest Financing of the Firm
The US Money Quantity Puzzle - A Challenge to Theory and Policy
In the USA, the definitions of the quantity of money used hitherto are obsolete because monetary innovations broaden the spectrurn of liquid assets and lower transaction costs. As long as this process persists, the Federal Reserve System is compelled to adopt a trial-and-error procedure in redefining the money-quantity aggregates. In addition, monetary policy is rendered more difficult because the macroeconomic impact of the innovations cannot be definitively defined. On the one hand they generate an expansive Impulse, since they release central bank money, but on the other also a restrictive one, since they make the holding of financial assets more attractive.