Mülhaupt,
Ludwig, and Schierenbeck, Henner and Flechsig, Rolf
Die Planung des
optimalen Kreditportefeuilles einer Universalbank (I)
Becker,
Wolf-Dieter
Einige
Auswirkungen der Währungspolitik auf den finanziellen Sektor
Holtfrerich,
Carl-Ludwig
Wechselkurssystem
und Philips-Kurve
Rose, Manfred
Fiskalpolitik
bei aktiver und passiver Zentralbankpolitik
Lachmann, Werner
Crowding-out
und die Budgetrestriktion des Staates: Eine Kritik
Â
Maier, Gerhard
Zur
monetären Relevanz von Fremdwährungsguthaben â Bemerkungen zu einem Bericht von
Jan Wilhelm Baan und Norbert Kleinheyer
Baan, Jan Wilhelm and Kleinheyer, Norbert
Zur
monetären Relevanz von Fremdwährungsguthaben â Eine Erwiderung
Demopoulos, George D.
Monetary Policy in the Open Economy of Greece (Hans-Hermann Francke)
Kloten, N. and Bart, H.-J. and Ketterer, K.-H und Vollmer, R.
Zur Entwicklung des Geldwertes in Deutschland (Charles C. Roberts)
Handwörterbuch der Wirtschaftswissenschaften (Manfred Piel)
Von Hayek, F. A.
Entnationalisierung des Geldes. Eine Analyse der Theorie und Praxis
konkurrierender Umlaufmittel (Manfred Hieber)
Konrad, Alexander
Das Geschäft der Kreditvermittler. Ihre Bedeutung und Stellung am Markt
(Udo Lütteken)
Brinkmann, Theodor
Die Determinanten der kurzfristigen Veränderung der funktionellen
Einkommensverteilung in der Bundesrepublik Deutschland (Charles C. Roberts)
Becker, Wolf-Dieter
âSome Effects of
Monetary Policy on the Financial Sectorâ
The first part of
the paper deals with monetary effects of current monetary policy arrangements
which can be derived from the monetary theory of the balance of payments and
purchasing power parity theory. The author reaches the conclusion that the
theory of purchasing power parity cannot be applied to the relationship of European
currencies to the dollar, because the exchange rate movements are not
"independent" (G. Cassel). There can be no question of a failure of
the theorem because the prerequisites for its functioning are lacking. In
general, therefore, the monetary approach of balance-of-payments theory is
applicable and thus there is a direct (international) interrelationship of
interest rates. Countries with a relatively low interest rate(and relatively
little inflation) become capital-exporting countries in two senses: As
preferred lender countries for foreign borrowers, and in consequence of the
tendency of domestic investors to switch to countries with a relatively higher
nominal interest level. Concrete effects of this circumstance the business
policy of the banks are examined in the second part of the paper. In
particular, an analysis is undertaken of business policy consequences arising
from substitution of the risk of interest rate changes for the exchange rate
risk.
Holtfrerich,
Carl-Ludwig
âExchange Rate
Systems and the Phillips Curveâ
The point
of departure of this study is the rise in the inflation and/or
unemployment
rates in the western industrial countries since the end of the
nineteen-sixties, which was also noted in the so-called McCracken report. The
more aggressive wage policy of the labour unions since that time has often been
highlighted in the scientific debate hitherto as the chief cause of the
deterioration of the Phillips relations. The paper seeks an explanation of the
change observed worldwide in the unions' aspirations and of the marked labour
cost increases in the seventies as a result of wage agreements for which the
employers were partly responsible. The erosion of the world monetary system
with basically fixed exchange rates, which persisted from the late sixties
onwards and culminated in 1973 in a system of basically flexible exchanges
rates, is discussed as a possible factor of worldwide impact which influenced
the observed change in wage policy. It is shown that the benefit of a
stability-oriented wage policy - for the unions with respect to securing full
employment and for the employers with respect to improvement of the
international competitiveness of theirs firms - must be assigned less weight in
the calculations of labour and management where exchange rates are flexible
than under a system of fixed exchanged rates. Moreover it is to be expected
that the Phillips-curve trade-off in small countries with a large Proportion of
foreign trade will be less marked under relatively firm exchange rates than
under a regime of flexible exchange rates, because in the former case greater
wage and price stability as compared to foreign countries leads above all to
additional demand, i. e. to more employment and growth, in the sphere of
foreign trade, while in the latter case induces primarily exchange rate
movements which tend to offset international differences in stability. These
arguments are based on the empirical proof of a marked Philips relation for the
economy of the Federal Republic of Germany in the seventies - under the
influence of flexible exchanges rates -while no trade-off between Inflation and
unemployment rates can be demonstrated for the preceding period.
Rose, Manfred
âFiscal Policy linked with Active and Passive Central
Bank Policyâ
The theoretical debate on the efficiency
of fiscal policy is in need of correction in that it is inadmissible to assume
a simultaneous counteracting central bank policy.
On the one hand, it is quite evident that
the application of different fiscal instruments to achieve various objectives
is always most effective in conjunction with a specific central bank policy.
Even with the macromodel of extremely simple structure which is here used as a
basis, the possibility of greatly diverging effects of fiscal policy under an
active central bank policy on the one hand and an extremely passive central
bank policy on the other becomes manifest. In this connection it is of
substantial importance whether the fiscal authorities orient their action in
laying down new combinations of instruments solely to the goods market or
simultaneously make allowances for the money market effects of their new
activities, that is for all systematic effects of fiscal policy. Considered as
a whole, none of the analysed possibilities of active and passive central bank
behaviour can be deduced to be invariable macroeconomically advantageous
alternatives to a fiscal policy geared to reduction of inflationary effects,
securing of full employment and the highest possible national product. This
demonstrates once again the necessity of co-ordinating central bank and fiscal
policy.
Furthermore, it has been shown that tax
effects are not - as in the traditional context - related solely to demand for
goods. On the contrary, we must reckon with tax schedule changes having a
direct effect an the supply of goods, the demand for money and the money
supply. This, in turn, gives rise to special systematic effects which depend on
the assumed behaviour of the central bank.
Lastly, the relevance of value-added-tax
modifications could be documented as variations of fiscal Instruments. In the
theory of fiscal policy, little attention has been paid so far to such problems
at macroeconomic level.
Lachmann, Werner
âCrowding-out and Government Budget Restriction: A Critiqueâ
The controversy on whether fiscal policy is a suitable instrument of
economic policy for exerting a positive influence on employment has been
enriched by the crowding-out debate. In that debate, a distinction must be
drawn between real crowding out and financial crowding effects. Following the
debate on transaction-cash and portfolio crowding effects - crowding-in is also
possible - the significance of budget restriction has been brought to the fore.
The fiscal multiplier must then be positive over the long run, otherwise the
model of a simply economy would not be stable. From the stability of the
observed economic events, conclusions are drawn (with the help of the
correspondence principle) with respect to the multiplier. In this article, the
significance of the stability constraint is discussed. Causality and the
adaption process also have to be examined. It is established that the observed
stability of economic events does not necessarily lead to a positive fiscal
multiplier (as in the Blinder/Solow theory). An investigation of real crowding
out is more relevant than financial crowding out. In a real model, government
budget restriction no longer plays a role. The investment multiplier of
increased government spending proves to be an important factor. lf that
multiplier is positive, price increases occur, which then guarantee real
growth. Higher government expenditure coupled with simultaneous combatting of
Inflation has an inhibiting effect on the level of employment and may even
result in a decline in real income and hence in increased unemployment.
Reports
Maier, Gerhard
âOn the Monetary Relevance
of Foreign Currency Depositsâ
In their proposal
concerning money aggregation Baan and Kleinheyer de
not distinguish between
domestic and foreign currency, since they add foreign currency deposits of
residents to the domestic monetary Aggregates. In this they are neglecting a basic
difference which is stressed especially by the new microfoundation of monetary
theory. For the new microeconomics, the most essential criterion for the
definition of money is, that the use of money should cause the lowest possible
costs. On the contrary, the use of foreign currencies does produce relatively
high costs; since normally they are not accepted by residents as means of
payment and their exchange rate is uncertain. Thus, in a flexible exchange rate
system, the residents' foreign currency deposits do not imply any danger for a
restricting domestic monetary policy.
Baan, Jan Wilhelm and Kleinheyer, Norbert
âOn the Monetary Relevance
of Foreign Exchange Credit Balances - A Replyâ
According to the "functional approach", short-term
euro-deposits in the hands of domestic non-bankers should be included in the
quantity of money of the country concerned. With this method the efficiency of
the monetary policy of that country can be improved. The authors uphold their
proposal despite the above criticism by Gerhard Maier.
The objection that transactions are necessary in order to use
euro-deposits for payments misses the mark in that (a) other assets - also
falling within the defined limits of the quantity of money - can likewise be
used for payments purposes only by incurring transaction casts, and (b) under
certain circumstances euro-deposits can be used for payments in an autonomous
international payments system without transaction costs accruing.
Maier's second objection, which is
based on an unclear definition of euro-deposits, foreign exchange deposits and
holdings of notes and coins, is applicable precisely to aggregation methods
other than the "functional approach". In contrast, the
"functional approach" would lead to a highly significant Definition
of the monetary Aggregates, as it takes exact account of the purchasing power
in the hands of domestic non-bankers.
In conclusion, the authors make tentative estimates of the eurodeposits
held by non-bankers, using the examples of the Netherlands and the Federal
Republic of Germany.