Roskamp, Karl W.
From Chaos to Antichaos and Back to Chaos: The Possibility of a Cycle
Zinsstruktur und Wirtschaftswachstum
Banaian, King and McClure J. Harold and Willett, Thomas D.
The Inflation Tax is Likely to be Inefficient at any Level
Lane, Timothy D. and Gros, Daniel
Symmetry versus Asymmetry an a Fixed Exchange Rate System
Informationseffizienz der Devisenmärkte und unternehmerisches Wechselkursrisiko-Management
Wissensbasierte Systeme für die Kreditwürdigkeitsprüfung
Möglichkeiten zu Förderung des Geldmarktes im internationalen Wettbewerb
Overlapping Structures as a Model of Money. An Analytical Review (Rainer Klump)
Roskamp, Karl W.
"From Chaos to Antichaos and Back to Chaos: The Possibility of a Cycle"
Chaotic dynamics has become an important field in economics and in many other areas. It is known that a complex non-linear system can generate disorder, and ultimately end up in a state of deterministic chaos. A new development is now the possibility of antichaos. Out of a chaos may suddenly arise a high state of order. Involved is a kind of spontaneous crystallization.
In this paper it is shown how in chaos dynamics the sensitive dependence on initial conditions can explain a transition from chaos to antichaos. A small parametric disturbance in the initial conditions suffices to cause such a switch. Yet, the disturbance must be neither too small, nor too large. It must have a sufficient leverage effect and it must come at the right time.
One may speculate that imbedded in the structure of deterministic chaos are elements of order and determinateness. These are seemingly dormant, until appropriate disturbances, with implicit steering characteristics, occur.
It is possible that a specific sequence of time-dependent disturbances generates a cycle which moves from chaos to antichaos and back to chaos.
"Interest Rate Structure and Economic Growth"
Empirical studies show that the interest rate structure includes suitable elements for forecasting real economic growth. This contribution discusses possible explanations of the close correlation of the two quantities. Based on the expectation theory for the interest rate structure, this contribution shows that it is not the interest rate structure, but rather the interest rate level which determines the dynamism of demand in the future. The visible correlation of the interest rate structure with economic growth is to be explained by the fact that changes in short-term interest rates do not to the same extent occasion adaptations of long-term interest rates which typically means a steep interest structure curve in the case of low interest rate levels and an inverse interest structure curve in the case of high interest rate levels. Where the influence of monetary policy on the development of short-term interest rates is strong, the interest rate structure is to be interpreted mainly as an indicator of the monetary-policy course. But interest structure-based indicators are not appropriate as target figures in monetary policy because the central bank lacks the necessary control possibilities.
Banaian, King and McClure J. Harold und Willett, Thomas D.
"The Inflation Tax Is Likely to be Inefficient at any Level "
The traditional calculation of the optimal inflation tax yields optimal inflation rates between 30 and 200 percent. This ignores any output costs generated by higher anticipated inflation. We argue that the literature since Friedman's Nobel lecture supports the hypothesis that higher inflation lowers growth. This Friedman effect lowers both the optimal rate and the rate that maximizes the government's total revenue from inflation and income taxation. Simple calculations demonstrate that if a 10 % anticipated inflation reduces growth by 1 % per annum, the optimal rate of inflation in industrialized economies is zero unless the marginal cost of the income tax is very high. The revenue motive, while reduced by the Friedman effect, remains relatively strong.
Lane, Timothy D. and Gros, Daniel
"Symmetry versus Asymmetry in a Fixed Exchange Rate System"
Moving from the European Monetary System (EMS) to the European Monetary Union (EMU) implies a move from an asymmetric to a symmetric currency system. This paper uses a simple two-country model to compare the impact of various shocks in each country's economy under alternative monetary arrangements, providing a basis for comparing symmetric and asymmetric systems and permitting an interpretation of the members countries' divergent interests and the resulting Nash equilibrium. The analysis implies that the removal of trade barriers through the European Single Market plan and the additional shocks associated with German unification may partly explain the recent move towards a symmetrical system.
"Information Efficiency of Foreign-Exchange Markets and Exchange-Rate Risk Management by Companies "
The thesis of information efficiency of foreign-exchange markets was the subject of several empirical studies in the last few years. By far the most of these studies did not disprove this thesis. The present contribution underlines the importance of foreign-exchange market efficiency for entrepreneurial exchange rate risk management. Where foreign-exchange markets are efficient, there is no possibility for individual market participants to set up profitable exchange-rate prognoses systematically. Even a selected variety of hedging instruments (e.g. currency futures vs. currency options) does not enable companies in efficient markets to increase the cash flow they expert to see in future. The basis for any speculative or "selective" exchange-rate risk management strategies thus ceases to exist. These theoretical findings were subsequently compared with the results of an empirical study of the exchange-rate risk management by large German manufacturing enterprises. This comparison shows clear differences between practical modes of company behaviour and the modes of behaviour rationally acting market participants may legitimately be expected to show in the foreign-exchange market. This contribution ends on a discussion of possible explanations of these discrepancies between theory and practice.
"Knowledge-Based Credit Standing Testing Systems "
Applying expert-system technology to financing and banking has resulted in a large variety of knowledge-based prototypes in recent years, and many knowledge-based systems are applied in practice. On the one hand, this contribution provides on overview over a sub-area of such systems, i.e. over expert systems for credit standing testing. In order to indicate a potential structure for applying such systems, it gives an expert system for testing credit standing in the case of new business set-ups on the other. The presentation focuses on the component of the system which strengthens the informational basis for decision-making by providing for automatic retrieval of information on company environment.