KREDIT und KAPITAL - Issue 4/1980



Burret, Mario and Fehr, Benedikt and Leibinger, Hans-Bodo, and Müller, Reinhard and Pauer, Gabriele and Rohwer, Bernd
Die Finanzpolitik 1976 bis 1979 im Spannungsfeld zwischen Konjunkturstimulierung und Haushaltskonsolidierung

Becker, Wolf-Dieter and Hasenkamp, Karl-Peter
Bewertungs- und Gliederungsfragen für Bankbilanzen nach dem Vorschlag einer EG-Richtlinie über den Jahresabschluß von Banken

Knappe, Eckhard
Die monetäre Zahlungsbilanztheorie

Kosfeld, Endrik
Zur Diskussion um die Erfolgswirkung der Wertstellungsgewinne


Von Rosen, Rüdiger
Verstärkte Rolle für den Internationalen Währungsfonds

Book Reviews

Faulwasser, B.
Zur Bedeutung von Erwartungen bei Preis- und Mengenreaktionen
(Jac. J. Sijben)

Gach, Klaus
Marktwertmaximierung und Gewinnmaximierung
(Joachim Krag)

Böschenstein, Roland
Die Anwendung der kreditpolitischen Instrumente der Mindestreservepolitik und der Kreditbegrenzung in der Schweiz
(Rüdiger Pohl)

Leuenberger, Th. and Ruffmann, K.-H. (Hrsg.)
Bürokratie, Motor und Bremse der Entwicklung
(Helmut Strizek)

Eckey, Hans-Friedrich
Strukturorientierte Konjunkturpolitik
(Heinz Kock)

Geis, Heinz-Günther und Götz, Gisela
Aus- und Fortbildung für das Development Banking
(Jürgen Backhaus)


Burret, Mario and Fehr, Benedikt and Leibinger, Hans-Bodo, and Müller, Reinhard and Pauer, Gabriele and Rohwer, Bernd
„Fiscal Policy 1976 to 1979 torn between Cyclical Stimulation and Budget Consolidation“

In the years 1976 to 1979, the fiscal policy of the Federal Republic of Germany was faced with conflicting tasks; on the one hand, gradual reduction of the greatly increased new public debt, and on the other, support by demand-promoting measures of the recovery initiated in 1975 from the severe recession in 1974/75. This article first examines how far the magnitude of the government deficits in the period under review was sufficient to cope with these objectives which at least over the short run are divergent. The Argumentation follows the line that the regional authorities- considered in retrospect - overstressed consolidation in 1976 and discontinued it in 1977 in favour of renewed expansive measures. In 1978, the public deficit had probably reached a volume appropriate to the requirements of credit market and demand policy, whereas in 1979 the opportunity of slightly reducing new borrowing was not taken advantage of. A further section investigates whether budget consolidation methods were consonant with the objective and the situation. Because from a realistic economic standpoint it is fundamentally impossible to diminish the restrictive effect of budget consolidation by restructuring public revenues and/or expenditures. As the actual trend of the various types of expenditure shows, however, a change of the expenditure structure failed to reduce the restrictive effect of the consolidation. Moreover, the tendency was rather to cut expenditures rather than increase taxes in order to reduce deficits, although the restrictive effects of expenditure cuts are probably greater than those of tax increases. The determining factor for this decision - apart from the danger of inflation which may arise from increases especially of indirect taxes - was probably the fact that, in view of the already higher wage and income tax burden caused by inflation and the tax progression, higher tax burdens could hardly have been carried through politically. From the monetary standpoint, public debt ought to have been converted from fairly long-term to shorter-term paper, choosing marketable and/or rediscountable types as far as possible and endeavouring to place them with private households to the greatest possible extent. On appraising actual developments, however, it proves that the debt policy action taken with respect to debt structure was in essence appropriate to satisfy the postulates, but with respect to volume had hardly any effect and was not sustained persistently. In a concluding section, the question is raised of the extent to which leeway for consolidating measures will be available in 1980 and 1981.


Becker, Wolf-Dieter and Hasenkamp, Karl-Peter
„Valuation and Layout Questions relating to Bank Balance Sheets as Proposed by an EC Directive on the Annual Accounts of Banks “

The EC directive on the annual accounts of companies, which was issued in summer 1978, provides for separate coordination in this field in the case of banks and other financial institutions. In the course of this coordination, in autumn 1977 an international study group submitted a proposal and in summer 1980 the EC Commission presented a draft for a directive. The critical analysis of the article is oriented essentially to the proposal of the international group of experts. The points dealt with in detail as central problems of both documents are the envisaged valuation and layout rules; an attempt is made to base them on the empty English concept of a true and fair view. Here again the chief question is whether the existence, formation or dissolution of reserves in the case of banks must always be disclosed. In the critical ventilation of this issue it is emphasized that a true and fair view is not an ultimate objective of economic policy, but an intermediate goal that conflicts with other intermediate goals of economic policy, e.g. with those of competition policy, banking policy, etc. They include also the safeguarding of the functional efficiency of the commercial banking system in the special sense that fluctuating statements of earnings should not lead to doubts regarding the soundness of individual banks or a number of banks, which are basically functionally efficient and solvent. Only if it could be stated with certainty that exaggerated reactions of customers are not to be expected would it be possible perhaps to dispense with undisclosed reserves. But this question is completely open and caution is therefore advisable on the part of economic policy-makers. The envisaged, far-reaching publicity regulations should be judged in a similar manner. In comparison, the remaining points of the two documents analysed are of less significance, though by no means unimportant. The article presents a fairly complete critical survey.


Knappe, Eckhard
„Monetary Balance-of-Payments Theory “

Just like traditional balance-of-payments theory, the monetary balance-of-payments theory seeks to answer the question as to the causes of the balance-of-payments situation and the question of balance-of-payments adjustment mechanisms. Instead of starting out from the various accounts (current and capital account), the monetary balance-of-payments theory takes the overall balance-of-payments (balance of foreign exchange) as its point of departure. lt is not national economic policy that governs, at least in part, national product growth, price level and interest rate level, with these magnitudes in their turn governing the balance-of-payments situation, but, where direct international price and interest rate relationships prevail, these magnitudes are determined exogenously. It is rather the situation on the national money market (and hence also national monetary policy) which is the primary and direct determinant of the balance-of-payments situation. After all, high national product growth, high price-level increase rates and a low interest rate level do not lead, as deduced by traditional balance-of-payments theories, to balance-of-payments deficits, but on the contrary to balance-of-payments surpluses. These differences, which at first sight are astonishing, are explained tentatively in a presentation of monetary balance-of-payments theory. In a critical appraisal, the theoretical results of monetary balance-of-payments theory and the results of attempts to test them empirically are compared with the rival, traditional balance-of-payments theory.


Kosfeld, Endrik
„On the Debate concerning the Earnings Effect of Value-Date Profits“

Not only in connection with bank cost accounting, but also with respect to the price policy of the banks, which has been the subject of lively public debate in recent years, highly divergent views have been expressed in some instances concerning the level of "value-date" profits. Inter alia, this is probably attributable to the fact that, on the whole, the pointers in the literature concerning the calculation of value-date profits cannot be regarded as very convincing. In this article, for the calculation of value-date profits the payments with favourable value dates, subdivided into inpayments and outpayments, are examined on the basis of the money transfer transactions for their effect on the balance sheet. The effect of value-date profits on the profitability of a bank is shown by varying the value dates of payments and then comparing those payments' effects on the balance sheet. The analysis is initially carried out solely for credit accounts, both with and without internal clearing; then, in a second step, the debit accounts are also included in the analysis. The selection of interest rates for amounts with favourable value dates reveals that the non-internally cleared outgoing payments and the internally cleared outgoing payments from debit accounts, and also the inpayments in favour of debit accounts have to be valued with an interest rate corresponding to the average interest rate for assets or the loan interest rate. From this it must be concluded that inpayments in favour of credit accounts make a relatively small contribution to earnings, on account of the applicable interest rate, than other payment transactions. Furthermore, the fluctuations in the interest level permit the conclusion that the contribution margins in payment transactions are also subject to marked fluctuations so that isolated consideration of contribution margins in payment transactions related to the whole year must be considered not very suitable as a basis for decisions.



Von Rosen, Rüdiger
„More Important Role for the International Monetary Fund“

The most important conclusions of the Monetary Conference in Washington from September 30 to October 3, 1980 are the following:
1. Both the industrial countries and the developing countries are agreed that first priority must continue to be given to the fight against inflation.
2. The balance of payments disequilibria of many member countries of the IMF, and in particular those of the non-oil exporting developing countries, have considerably worsened. No improvement over the short term is in sight.
3. In future, the International Monetary Fund is to play an important role in the adjustment process and in the financing of current account deficits.
4. The confrontation between the industrial countries and the developing countries that had been feared in many quarters did not materialize. There is to be no change on the character of the Fund as an institution for granting temporary balance of payments assistance to deficit countries.