Jander, Sigurd and Menkhoff, Lukas and Palm, Adalbert
Situationskonsistente Erwartungsstruktur und Geldpolitik in der Bundesrepublik Deutschland
Should the Hypothesis of a Well Defined and Stable World Demand for M1 be Reinstated? Simple Considerations and Tests
Short Run Data and Long-Run Theories: Testing the Monetary Approach to the Balance of Payments
Ineffektivität der Wirtschaftspolitik bei rationalen Erwartungen? Ein Kommentar mit anderen Argumenten für eine unzureichend begründete These
Darrat, Ali F.
Inflationary Surprises and Real Economic Activity in Germany: Some Tests Based on Efficient Market Expectations
Hauschild, Karsten and Winkelmann, Michael
Kapitalmarkteffizienz und Point & Figure-Analyse
Crowding-out in der Bundesrepublik Deutschland: Eine empirische Bestandsaufnahme
Die deutsche Inflation 1914 1923. Ursachen und Folgen in internationaler Perspektive
Venture Capital Leitfaden für die Praxis
Schierenbeck, Henner und Wielens, Hans (Hrsg.)
Bilanzstrukturmanagement in Kreditinstituten
Struktur der Bankwirtschaft, Band II: Spezialbanken und internationale Banken, Teil 1
Jander, Sigurd and Menkhoff, Lukas and Palm, Adalbert
Situation-consistent Expectation Structure and Monetary Policy in the Federal Public
Against the background of the current unemployment, the changes are now being ventilated of a trade-cycle stabilizing, i.e. at the present time, an expansive monetary policy. The theoretical deliberations make it clear that the real effectiveness of monetary policy depends on congruity of reality and the expectation structure of the people. On the other hand, monetary policy is faced with a dilemma when the expectations of private persons are based on a model structure which is not consonant with the given situation. From the standpoint of a ,,situation-consistent expectation structure, Bundesbank policy since the nineteen-fifties is examined. In the past few years, a Situation-inconsistent constellation has been observed, in which an expansive policy is equated with inflation and thus incapable of contributing to the solution of employment problems. Monetary policy can evade this partially self-made restriction of its leeway for action by trying the all too simple quantity-theory basis of the currently prevailing expectation structure.
Stability-consonant Fixed Exchange Rate Systems
The debate on fixed versus flexible exchange rates suffers from the fact that when speaking of fixed exchange rates most authors presuppose a fixed exchange rate system having essentially the nature of the unsuccessful Bretton Woods system. In this study it is shown that fixed exchange rate systems can also be so designed that the main system defects of Bretton Woods are avoided. The point of departure taken for the conception of a stability-consonant fixed exchange rate system is a proposal by McKinnon (1984) and the plan of a hardened foreign exchange standard introduced into the debate by the German Council of Economic Experts in its annual report 1966/67. A fixed exchange rate system as visualized by McKinnon would differ from the Bretton Woods system above all in that the participating central banks would pursue a common objective for the world money supply (M1). A stability-consonant growth rate of the world money supply would thus be ensured even in the event of extensive (direct or indirect) currency substitution. The disadvantage of this proposal lies in the fact that it allows extensive discretionary leeway to those central banks which pursue a less stability-consonant policy than the other participating countries. The hardened foreign exchange standard, on the other hand, is characterized by the fact that countries with an inflationary economic policy course are compelled quite automatically to adjust to the countries with a stability-oriented policy. This is ensured under the hardened foreign exchange standard by the participating countries being obligated to intervene only when their own currency is weak (exclusive intervention obligation at foreign exchange surrender point). Hence this type of fixed exchange rate system differs substantially from the Bretton Woods system (and also from McKinnons plan), in which central banks with strong currencies were always obliged in a weak-dollar phase to buy unlimited amounts of dollars. The risk of the hardened foreign exchange standard lies in its inflationary bias. If this is to be counteracted, it is advisable to combine this type of fixed exchange rate system with a common target for the sum of the monetary bases of the participating countries as proposed by McKinnon.
Should the Hypothesis of a Well Defined and Stable World Demand for M1 be Reinstatet?
Currency substitution is said to lead to instabilities in demand for individual currencies and undermine the attempts by the national monetary authorities to monitor the economy by keeping domestic growth on a steady path. According to various analysts, what is needed under these circumstances is control over the world money stock Central to these analyses is the hypothesis of the existence of a well defined and stable world money demand. The purpose of this paper is to see whether this hypothesis is analytically and empirically valid. It is devided into two major sections. The former is analytical and indicates the circumstances under which it might or might not be correct to make use of the concept of world money demand and expect such demand to be stable. In particular, it stresses that in a world under flexible exchange rates and with systematic deviations from PPP, one should be aware of the weakness of this concept. The latter section gives a few empirical results. It turns out that the evidence does support the hypothesis of a well defined and stable world money demand.
Short-Run Data and Long-Run Theories: Testing the Monetary Approach to the Balance of Payments
This paper concentrates on the methodology of the tests of the monetary approach to the balance of payments. The problems of conventional tests are attributed to the imposition of long-run assumptions on a short-run setting. A broader analytical framework is suggested where all sources of disturbance of the private sectors stock equilibrium are taken into account so that foreign reserves and domestic credit can be usefully redefined for empirical purposes. This framework is put into the appropriate macroeconomic-modelling context by studying the underlying adjustment processes within a disequilibrium analysis that considers the feedbacks between money supply and money demand.
Ineffectiveness of Economic Policy under Rational Expectations? A commentary with different arguments for an insufficient founded thesis
In an article recently published in this journal, Bernd-Thomas Ramb rejects as model-specific the thesis that under rational expectations anticipated economic policy measures have no effects (ineffectiveness hypothesis). Rambs argumentation sets out, in the final analysis, to show that measures financed by money creation change relative prices via distribution effects and thus engender production and employment effects. With his arguments, however, Ramb does not rebut the ineffectiveness hypothesis, which relates to demand-side measures in the sense of overall control. In the present essay, Rambs assertion is underpinned by a model which takes over the goods supply function used by the proponents of the ineffectiveness hypothesis. Some objections to the equilibrium-theory model approach and the conclusions derivable therefrom provide further support for the view that the ineffectiveness hypothesis is not per se derived from rational expectations, but is a special and simple model in which economic policy is unnecessary and hence ineffective.
Darrat, Ali F.
Inflationary Surprises and Real Economic Activity in West Germany: Some Tests Based on Efficient Market Expectations
This inquiry addresses the empirical validity of the Expectations-Adjusted Supply Function hypothesis (EASF) in the case of West Germany. As is well known, this hypothesis contends that only the unanticipated (surprise) component of inflation can be transmitted to the real side of the economy. Since systematic stabilization policies can work only if systematic (anticipated) inflation affects real economic activity, the EASF hypothesis implies that such policies are impotent. Drawing on Famas proposition that short-term interest rates provide efficient estimates of anticipated inflation, actual inflation in West Germany over the period 1960:1 - 1983:3 are decomposed into anticipated and unanticipated elements. These inflation measures are then used to test the validity of the EASF hypothesis. The empirical results strongly support the hypothesis in that only unanticipated inflation exerts a significant negative impact upon unemployment. For West Germany, such results therefore cast doubts on the usefulness of systematic stabilization policies.
Hauschild, Karsten and Winkelmann, Michael
Capital Market Efficiency and Point & Figure Analysis
Point and figure analysis is a chart technique. Its object is to derive from past prices information on future price movements in order to "beat to market. Hockmann is the first to present a comprehensive study of point and figure charts. In his simulation study, he finds confirmation of the point and figure technique. For all that, there has been controversial debate on his work. The present strategy simulation for point and figure analysis is intended to provide further information on the advantages of this chart technique and hence on the validity of the weak efficiency thesis for the German stock market. First, sever methodological weaknesses in Hockmanns study are enumerated. Then, on the basis of a random sample of public companies from the Karlsruher Kapitalmarktdatenbank, point and figure strategies are simulated. Special attention is paid to various periods: For instance, distinctions are drawn among the total period, subperiods according to the tone of the stock exchange and overlapping, rolling subperiods. Here the success of the point and figure technique proves to be very much dependent on the subperiod under consideration. The chart technique is superior to a simple buy and hold strategy especially when the stock index fluctuates markedly about a fixed level. Otherwise the buy and hold strategy is preferable as a rule. Since, however, the investor cannot know the future tone of the market in advance, it seems to us that there is no systematic superiority of the point and figure technique over a buy and hold strategy. This must be taken as confirmation of the weak efficiency thesis.
Crowding out in the Federal Republic of Germany: An Empirical Stock-Taking
The study gives a concise survey of the empirical results of some selected studies carried out for the Federal Republic of Germany on the subject of possible crowding-out in recent times. A distinction is drawn between two groups: On the one hand, papers and commentaries which set out - mainly on the basis of plausible assumptions - to judge whether or not crowding-out can actually be established for the period since 1974; on the other hand there are simulation studies which work with macroeconomic models and attempt to estimate the magnitude of possible crowding-out effects which would result in a hypothetical fiscal impulse. In the first group, the majority of authors negate any appreciable crowding-out effects for the period since 1974; only a minority is prepared to accept financial crowding out in the Federal Republic since 1974. The macroeconomic structure models work with dynamic income multipliers, the values of which are used as indicators for the degree of possible crowding out. The results of the various models for the nominal and real multipliers, however, are far from uniform. In particular, this is true of the real multipliers of the long run, which range from positive effects of fiscal policy to over-crowding-out. A slightly better degree of agreement is found on short-term prospects, the conclusions being predominantly optimistic. However, it should be noted that (1) most models were developed for short-term simulations, (2) the varying results are dependent to a high degree on the explicit or implicit assumptions of the model, and (3) some determinants of possible crowding-out effects are disregarded. Lastly, it must be taken into consideration that (4) negative results are not necessarily indicative of fiscal crowding-out, but also allocative crowding-out may be involved.