Behnke, Ernst- August
Der Einfluà von Optionsmärkten auf die Stabilität der Devisenmärkte
Thieme, H. Jörg
Reformen des monetären Sektors in sozialistischen Ländern: Ursachen, Transformationsbedingungen und institutionelle Voraussetzungen
Lang, Franz Peter and Ohr, Renate
Realwirtschaftliche Anpassungszwänge der monetären Integration. Zu den ökonomischen Wirkungen der deutsch- deutschen Vereinigung
Eijffinger, S. C. W and Gruijters, A. P. D.
On the Short Term Objectives of Daily Intervention by the Deutsche Bundesbank and the Federal Reserve System in the U. S. Dollar - Deutsche Mark Exchange Market
Timmermann, Vincenz
Universalbanken - Erfahrungen und mögliche Lehren
Neus, Werner and Nippel, Peter
Investitionsvolumen und Risikoallokation
Gischer, Horst und Sprink, Joachim
Die internationale Schuldenkrise: Bestandsaufnahme und Ausblick
Wagener, Hans- Jürgen (Hrsg.)
Monetäre Steuerung und ihre Probleme in unterschiedlichen Wirtschaftssystemen (Stefanie Hamacher)
Behnke, Ernst- August
"The Influence of Option Markets on the Stability of Foreign Exchange Markets"
This study analyzes within the framework of the option price theory of Black and Scholes the importance of arbitrage relations between option and futures markets for the simultaneous equilibrium of foreign exchange markets. It shows that the creation of option markets and the resultant hedging contracts of option suppliers may destabilize the original equilibrium. In the case of alternative exchange rate expectations in particular, supply and demand may, under certain conditions, no longer be found to be balancing each other at the level of all market participants' average expectations, but to show a polarization of countervailing equilibrium exchange rates. In borderline cases, a situation of multiple (stable and instable) equilibria may occur on the foreign exchange market impairing the efficiency of futures markets and increasing the volatility of exchange rates.
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Thieme, H. Jörg
"Reform of the Monetary Sector in Socialist Countries: Causes, Transformation Conditions and Institutional Prerequisites"
In the past, all socialist countries in Europe recorded substantial money overhangs of different dimensions because of increasing rationing on the goods markets against the background of government-fixed and controlled prices. Such money overhangs occasion not only allocation and redistribution effects, but represent also a central impediment to the intended decentralization and unfreezing of prices in the reform process because of fears of price inflation. The causes of inflationary potentials are to be found not so much on the real, but on the organizational side of the monetary sector: in spite of conditions formally favourable, as it seems, for strict money supply management, the monobank system in combination with plan-fulfilment targets and premium systems has occasioned a system-immanent corporate credit demand pull to which the governmental banking system had to respond in a positive manner because of the inability, in practice, of companies in socialist countries to go bankrupt. As a result of this credit-grating automatism, the state-bank system has been unable to manage money supply successfully.
Such money overhands may be reduced by various process political instruments (devaluation, price-level increases, nominal-wage cuts. tax increases, sale of government-owned assets) with the differential effect on output and employment having to be taken into consideration. On the other hand, future inflationary potentials can only be avoided if the monetary sector is transformed into a two-tier banking system. Such reform processes have been set in motion in some of the socialist countries in recent years, but have in no way been brought to a successful conclusion yet. It is not sufficient in this context to organize a two-tier banking system without creating at the same time the preconditions for destroying the credit-granting automatism, unwholesome to money supply management, by drastic reform of markets, the corporate sector and ownership conditions.
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Lang, Franz Peter and Ohr, Renate
"Real Economic Adjustment Constraints in Monetary Integration"
This contribution analyzes the most important real economic implications of C man-German monetary integration for the GDR economy. The analysis covers both demand and supply-side problems which result in limited corporate profitability thus, in inadequate capital inflows on the one hand and in growing structural unemployment and allocation problems on the other. Externally, the GDR's competitiveness is deteriorating as a result of the monetary link with the Deutsch-mark not only vis-a-vis potential Western clients and competitors, but also in the trade with its former CMEA partners.
This is followed by an analysis of the question whether, with the help of fiscal policy incentives or through autodynamic effects, a quick upturn of economic activity can be achieved. The conclusion is reached that the mere copying of general economic concepts and the mere introduction of the Deutsch-mark do not entail the kind of framework conditions that led to the socalled economic miracle in West Germany after the 1948 monetary reform. Monetary and economic integration of the GDR rather unleashes real effects that may - on certain conditions - hamper rather than favour a successful and rapid economic upturn.
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Eijffinger, S. C. W and Gruijters, A. P. D.
"On the Short Term Objectives of Daily Intervention by the Deutsche Bundesbank and the Federal Reserve System in the U. S. Dollar - Deutsche Mark Exchange Market"
The purpose of this article is to specify and to test a short term reaction function of the foreign exchange market intervention by the Deutsche Bundesbank and the Federal Reserve System. Based on the Jurgensen-report and more recent publications, it is assumed that both central banks have as their main objective for intervention policy to smooth exchange rate volatility from day to day and from. week to week. Using daily intervention data of the Deutsche Bundesbank and the Federal Reserve System and intra-day data of the U.S. Dollar-Deutsche Mark exchange rate for the period February 1985 - September 1988, the most important conclusions are the following. Firstly, both central banks conducted a ,,leaning against the wind" policy in order to smooth the US. Dollar-Deutsche Mark exchange rate fluctuations more from day to day than from week to week. Secondly, both central banks take full account of the uncertainty in the U.S. Dollar-Deutsche Mark exchange market with respect to their intervention policy.
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Timmermann, Vincenz
"Universal Banks - Experience and Lectures that May Have to Be Learned"
The author discusses the question of whether the German universal banking system - as a whole or at least material elements thereof - constitute a blueprint if a country nowadays were to restructure or establish its monetary and credit systems afresh. His answer is "yes", and in doing so, he is thinking of the following special features of the universal banking system: The granting of personal, unsecured loans; the application of the "crédit mobilier" principle of long-term investment financing; the strong emphasis on deposit-taking; the continued development of current account transactions and the bank clearing system. For countries not in a position to rely on a prosperous middle class and on wealthy merchants and traders, the universal banking system in principle is more suitable than the Anglo-Saxon separation system. The credit category known as the unsecured, personal loan makes it possible for all proficient and venturesome enterprises to make investments, even if such enterprises are short of the necessary assets. On the one hand the bank client is presented with the complete range of banking services as if he were in a supermarket; on the other, the client commits himself to a particularly dose relationship with "his" banker.
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Neus, Werner and Nippel, Peter
"Volume of Investment and Risk Allocation"
It is argued where in the course of the equity capital gap discussion that equity capital, where insufficient in amount, impedes investment in risky ventures. This contribution, however, emphasizes not so much the adequacy of amount, but the risk allocation associated with equity capital investment. Where the amount of equity is very large, but the allocation of risks is poor, the risk premium may become so great that the net value of the investment turns negative. In such cases, an investment does not fail over inadequate equity capitalization, but over an inappropriate exploitation the capital market's willingness to accept risks. It is demonstrated on the basis of a simple model that, in the light of this consideration, the spreading of risks in the form of equity financing has a positive effect on investment activity. From that angle, the promotion of equity financing is helpful in the stimulation of risky investments. Where drawbacks of external equity financing are taken into consideration, which result especially from an asymmetrical spread of information, the positive evaluation is overcast by an element of relativity. The model variants as presented here suggest an impairment of just the advantages of equity financing; however, the inclusion of further drawbacks may also mean that equity financing is rejected altogether.
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