Keynes als Kapitaltheoretiker
Exogenous Money, Monetary (Dis)equilibrium and Expectational Lags
Notenbankinterventionen und Effizienz der Devisenmärkte. Überlegungen zur Dollarkursentwicklung
Der unaufhaltsame Abstieg eines Leitwährungslandes
Emissionspreis und Bezugsrechtswert bei Aktienemissionen
Tavlas, George S.
Inflationary Finance and the Demand for Money in Greece
The Monetary Committee of European Community
Die Banken im Jahre 2000
(Hans J. Krümmel)
Zahn, Hans E.
Finanzinnovation Glossarium der neuen Hedging und Finanzierungsinstrumente
Abschied von Keynes? Eine Antwort auf die monetaristisch, neoklassische Gegenrevolution
Monetäre Verflechtung. Finanzintermediation und Kreditangebot. Eine empirische Analyse
(Jürgen von Hagen)
Keynes as a Capital Theorist
As a critical evaluation of the Keynesian fundamentalism - whose protagonists understand themselves as post-Keynesians - this essay discusses the demands to be met by a Keynesian-type economy formulating a monetary production theory. The principle underlying such Keynesian-type economy - by which it distinguishes itself from the classical and neoclassical theory of value - is that money forms the market system's restriction on budgets - the unity of wealth, commodity and labour markets - and that, as a consequence, money interest becomes the market system's general scarcity-induced price. This means that the interest rate is explained in terms of liquidity preference; it functions as the price of giving up liquidity, but not - as distinct from the orthodox line of thinking - the price of non-consumption. In this context, the monetary character of production presupposes that capital, too, represents a form of giving up liquidity with the rate of return being a kind of money interest. However, the Keynesian fundamentalism closes its eyes on this insight by deriving the rate of return from the nature of capital as a means of production and interpreting it as a quasi-rent. By doing so, this fundamentalism just covers the effects of the liquidity preference which makes the interest rate a barrier standing in the way toward full employment, while ignoring that the liquidity preference keeps capital scarce thus enabling a profit to be made. A monetary theory of production that is conclusive in itself thus shows that the limitation of production and the Generation of profits are just the two sides of one medal. Contrary to the views of the Keynesian fundamentalism, the liquidity preference does, however, not cause any market failure preventing full employment which may be counteracted by a policy of low interest. It rather reflects the principle at the base of a money economy presupposing excess supply and involving a trend toward underemployment as a consequence.
Exogenous Money, Monetary (Dis)equilibrium, and Expectational Lags
This paper addresses the question of the estimation of demand-for-money functions during periods of monetary control. As David Laidler has recently pointed out, the standard approach that postulates a partial adjustment mechanism (the Chow equation) is untenable if money is exogenous. In recent years, Switzerland has adhered very closely to a monetary base target, thus leaving little doubts that money is exogenous in the Swiss case. We report estimates of Swiss demand for base money functions using alternatively the Chow formulation, various disequilibrium hypotheses (including the one favoured by Laidler), and the permanent income hypothesis. A new estimation procedure is used in some cases to allow for the exogeneity of money during part of the sample. Our results indicate that the monetary disequilibrium hypothesis is not supported by the facts. Swiss data are consistent with monetary equilibrium, and the presence of a lagged dependent variable in money demand equations can be explained by expectational lags.
Intervention Policy and the Efficiency of Foreign Exchange Markets Reflections to the Fluctuating Dollar
The violent and continuous fluctuations of the dollar since the introduction of flexible exchange rates in 1973 are the outcome of a quantity of speculative portfolio decisions. Under the name of "managed floating" foreign exchange market interventions took place in a high degree but could not stop the exchange rate speculation. This in mind it is analysed in the present paper, whether there are arguments for a lack of efficiency in foreign exchange markets and whether exchange market interventions have some influence on the efficiency of foreign exchange markets. It is shown yet, that the evidently strong fluctuations of the dollar are consistent with an efficient foreign exchange market, as far as the exchange rate fluctuations clearly are not systematic, i. e. as far as they are stochastic. However the kind of intervention policy the German Bundesbank applied was mostly appropriated rather to worsen than to improve the efficiency of the foreign exchange market. Only a consistent, transparent and in certain bounds predictable intervention strategy can bring about the stabilization of expectations which is necessary for the stabilization of the exchange rate. Only such an intervention policy at the same time can improve the efficient evaluation of informations on the foreign exchange markets.
The Unstoppable Decline of a Reserve-Currency Country
This paper discusses the response to the most recent dollar rate movements by the monetary theory of determining exchange rates on the basis of assumptions for the Purchasing Power Parity (PPP). This approach can only be adapted on the basis of arguments changing with the dollar rate movements. Therefore, such an approach is unsatisfactory in the assessment of developments other than very long-term ones, in which causalities are no longer identifiable. For this reason, the assumption that exchange rates are determined by national price levels (active PPPS) is rejected. Instead, a presentation of passive PPPs on the basis of a Keynesian money economy theory is given, which defines exchange rates in terms of the scarcity of currencies that are freely convertible and compete with one another in international credit markets. The PPP is formed by price and quantitative adjustments on national resource and goods markets to the credit market equilibrium. From this angle, a definitely adverse judgement must be passed on US economic policies. The dollar rate level does not reflect confidence in US economic developments, but is the direct result of the more or less vigorous public-sector borrowing requirement in the USA. As a consequence, capital and goods import surpluses support the high level of prosperity in the USA at stable prices at present. Since government spending will not result in any increasing volume of tax revenue, the ability to expand the national debt is invariably bound to come to an end. The cessation of the reverse demand for the dollar will be the cause of the dollar rate decline which, contentually, is a pure credit market phenomenon, i. e. rising demand f or non-dollar deposits by credit suppliers to expand their lending operations on the basis of a currency with a convincing wealth securing function. Big losses in real income as a result of "success in exports" at lower exchange rates will then accompany the reexportation of the present creditfinanced prosperity from the USA and result in structural shifts toward the production of exportable products. Such development can be avoided in the USA by sharp Deflation which will, however, be confronted with competing efforts of other currency areas striving for the reserve-currency privilege.
Offer Price, Rights Value, and New Stock Issues
The article empirically investigates the option value of preemptive rights f or a sample of Swiss rights issues of common stock. The analysis reveals that the deviations from traditionally calculated rights values are in general negligible. lt is finally argued that asymmetric information can explain an optimal, i.e. not arbitrary low, offer price for the newly issued shares, which is moreover positively correlated with the value of future cash flows.
Tavlas, George S.
lnflationary Finance and the Demand for Money in Greece
This paper estimates the effects of adaptive and rational-price expectations on money demand in Greece. In contrast to the findings of previous studies, which define adaptive price expectations as equal to the current rate of inflation, a modified-Cagan formulation of adaptive-price expectations has been found to be an important determinant of money demand. Stability tests are performed which show that regressions with both price-expectations variables are stable over the estimation period. The results of Granger and Sims causality tests indicate a feedback relation between money creation and inflation. However, the Sims results suggest that causality has run more reliably from money creation to prices. The regression results are used to determine the upper limit on the amount of seignorage. The determination of maximizing seignorage suggests that, had the Government not taken measures in 1982 and 1983 to curb money supply growth, Greece was headed into a situation of accelerating inflation.
The Monetary Committee of the European Community
The Monetary Committee of the European Community can look back on a history of almost thirty years. It has stimulated international monetary policy in multiple respects on this period of rapid change ranging from the Bretton-Woods regime of fixed rates of exchange via the free float to the European Monetary System, now almost ten years old. Besides the Committee of Central Bank Governors, the Monetary Committee of the European Community has become the Communitys central coordination body. In some cases such as the important issue of central rate changes its task is to push deliberations to the stage of decision-making and to take decisions on behalf of the Ministers, where appropriate. Its monthly meetings out of the spotlight of publicity have become a catalyst of European monetary policy. This explains why - of necessity - rather divergent opinions often clash. However, the strength of this institution precisely is to implement unambiguous rules of a responsible EMS policy in practice without any diluting compromises. A stability-minded EMS policy is a matter of not only the working of mechanisms, but mainly the result of monetary policy-makers political willingness and ability to win acceptance for their aims.