ECUnomics - Perspektiven einer europäischen Geldverfassung
Über "ECUnomics" zu einer europäischen Geldverfassung? Kommentar
Wechselkurstheorien und Wirtschaftspolitik
Konflikte der monetären Steuerung bei flexiblen Wechselkursen
Monetäre Schätzansätze zur Erfassung der Schattenwirtschaft. Ein Vergleich verschiedener Meßmethoden
Allsbrock, Odgen O.
Rational Expectations and Crowding-Out
Steindl, Frank A.
General Equilibrium Models of Inflation and Interest Rates: Specification Considerations
Sind Steuern und Staatsverschuldung äquivalente Instrumente zur Finanzierung der Staatsausgaben?
International Trade and Exchange Rates in the Late Eighties
Hadding, W. and Immenga, U. and others
Festschrift für Winfried Werner zum 65. Geburtstag am 17.Oktober 1984
Integrationskonzepte auf dem Prüfstand. Jahreskolloquium 1982
Princing Policies of Financial Intermediaries, Studies in Contemporary Economics
(Jürgen von Hagen)
Beckmann, M. and Krelle, W.
Lecture Notes in Economics and Mathematical System
ECUnomics - Perspectives of a European Monetary Order
The object of this paper is essentially an economic problem analysis of the European currency unit ("ECUnomics"); it is conceived as a survey-like stocktaking of the position at the beginning of a research project (on the perspectives of monetary integration and stability in Europe) and therefore aims more at stimulating critical reactions than at giving answers. An inquiry is made into the optimal pattern of a European monetary constitution, including a possible role of the Ecu in such a concept. Inter alia, an answer must give explicit consideration to the international phenomena of capital mobility and currency substitution. The necessity of further monetary integration in the European Community in the long run can be derived basically from the implications of these two economic facts; political goodwill then plays a role rather for the rapidity and institutional configuration of progress in integration policy. In an initial and undoubtedly incomplete approach to the problems, the concrete path to a European monetary order is divided into three stages. In the first stage the emphasis is on progress in monetary integration, in the second stage on progress in monetary stability (convergence to price stability). The third stage, with respect to which essentially only questions are raised, might be described as a sort of "institutional consolidation" of the previously achieved progress towards integration and stability. Here a distinction is drawn between mainly internal issues (e. g. introduction and inflation risks of a parallel Ecu currency) and the more external aspects (e.g. Ecu as an international reserve currency) - all problem areas for which precise and, in particular, empirically well-founded analyses are still lacking.
On ECUnomics for a European Monetary Order?
The article ventilates a research project of Wolfgang Gebauer dealing with the way to reach a European monetary order. It is shown that the "ECUnomies" research programme is oriented too one-sidedly to the European Currency Unit (ECU) as the basic and terminal point of monetary integration and disregards important options of the Integration process.
Exchange Rate Theories and Economic Policy
The false trend of the dollar exchange rate in the years 1984 and 1985 has demonstrated very clearly to economic policy makers - especially those in the United States that even in a system of flexible exchange rates they cannot adopt a completely passive attitude to exchange rate movements. The present study examines the extent to which the current monetary theories can serve as pointers for economic policy action aimed at reducing or avoiding misalignment of exchange rates. It proves that none of the prevailing theories have sufficient empirical relevance to enable derivation of operational action guidelines for monetary and economic policy. If less exacting demands are made on the theories, the financial market approach to exchange rates proves at least an orientation aid for economic policy, because it permits clearer recognition of the central factors for exchange rate determination than all other models. Nevertheless, at present monetary policy lacks a solid theoretical foundation. lf it sets out to counter the misalignment of a currency (i. e. exchange rate trend no longer explainable on a medium-term basis with fundamental factors - as opposed to short-term deviations of an exchange rate from a specific trend of any sort), above all measures with a signal or announcement effect are recommendable, with which a correction of misguided exchange rate expectations is most likely to be effected. Target zones in the sense of non-binding declarations of intent by central banks are inadvisable, since this might risk the credibility of the central banks.
Conflicts of Monetary Control under Flexible Exchange Rates
Since the German Bundesbank manifestly oriented its monetary policy in 1980 for the first time since the introduction of flexible exchange rates to foreign trade conditions, the debate on the dependence of the money supply on foreign trade has been revived. The central issue is intervention policy, which can be significant on the one hand for the domestic money supply and on the other for the trend of exchange rates. In this study it becomes evident that the intervention activities in the Federal Republic of Germany are quite lively even under flexible exchange rates and have taken on an ever greater magnitude especially since 1977/78. As, since that time, a considerable change in the (dollar) exchange rate was recorded, it suggested itself that the monetary policy of the German Bundesbank was again more closely oriented to foreign trade conditions. the ensuing consequences are depicted by the following deliberations: Proceeding from the theoretical finding that foreign exchange market intervention without a money supply effect has no lasting effect on the exchange rate, but that monetary policy by way of domestic instruments may also be pursued to attain a specific exchange rate change, situations can be described, which, in view of the constellation of cyclical phase and exchange rate movements, may prove rich in conflicts. An anticyclical monetary policy, which can still be observed currently at least in rudimentary form, can not only counter such conflicts, but due to its simultaneous impact on the exchange rate even aggravates under certain circumstances the cyclical fluctuations. Against this background, a more steadying monetary policy must be called for, which can contribute to reducing Potentials for cyclical and exchange rate fluctuations.
Monetary Estimation Approaches to Assessing the "Shadow Economy" - A comparison of various methods
The phenomenon of the shadow economy has drawn increasing attention in the public. Mainly two questions were discussed: how big is the shadow economy and what should be done? The first problem is, of course, how to measure something which is hidden and cannot be observed directly. Measurement approaches start from the observation that the shadow economy leaves traces in other economic sectors, especially in the monetary sphere. This is due to the fact that usually, transactions are performed by a medium of exchange. The aim of the paper is a rigorous presentation of different estimation methods by use of an axiomatic characterisation of underlying assumptions. Thereby, advantages as well as shortcomings of the measurement approaches will be analyzed, mostly related to the question of per capita currency holding. Finally, based on an estimation result of possible determinants and indicators of the shadow economy, some consequences will be discussed for public policy issues.
Allsbrock, Odgen O.
Rational Expectations and Crowding-Out
This paper reorders the IS - LM geometry to include rational expectations. When monetary policy is then applied, the effect is one of crowding-out. Hence, the assumptions of rational expectations, expansionary monetary policy, and reduced demand for real balances leads to reduced saving and investment ratios and an increased consumption ratio. It is thus the case that non-neutrality of money in a distributional or compositional sense exists.
Steindl, Frank A.
General Equilibrium Models of Inflation and lnterest Rates: Specification Considerations
The usual procedure in general equilibrium models is to invoke Walras's Law to eliminate one market. As a methodological matter, the Tobin / Patinkin method is to model their respective general equilibrium frameworks by formally considering all markets. In this paper, four general equilibrium models of expected inflation and real interest rates are investigates in terms of their specification and consistency using the Tobin / Patinkin methodological procedure. A price expectations augmented Patinkin model reported earlier by the author is shown to be consistent. An increase in inflationary expectations may cause the real rate to rise or fall. When the Fisher effect holds in the bond market, the real rate must rise. The models of Mundell, Sargent, and Obst / Rasche do not include a bond market. Using the Tobin / Patinkin methodological procedure, if a bond market incorporating all of the variables in the goods and money markets is included, no equilibrium occurs in any of those models. That is, the models are inconsistent; they are misspecified. Respecifying each market to include inflationary expectations as an independent influence results in a unique equilibrium in each model. For both the respecified Mundell and Obst / Rasche models, the real rate may rise or fall when expectations of inflation increase. If the Fisher effect holds in the bond market, the real rate must rise. For the respecified Sargent model, the real rate increases whenever inflationary expectations increase.
Are Taxes and Public Debt Equivalent Instruments for Financing Government Expenditures?
Ricardo's equivalence theorem states that public debt has the same macroeconomic effects as the financing of government expenditures via taxes. First it is shown that certain implications of circular flow theory are linked with this theorem and that it involves asset-neutrality and allocation-neutrality. On the basis of the fundamentals of the Generation model developed by Barro, allowances for the interests of future generations and also public and private debt as instruments for intertemporal transfer of consumption are examined. The question of whether more efficient intertemporal transfer of consumption is possible with the aid of public debt because private consumption preferences can be allowed for more effectively or because government borrowing is preferable to private debt for cost or competition reasons, is thoroughly ventilated, also in connection with capital market imperfections. A simple empirical test with the help of a consumption function shows that the Ricardian equivalence theorem cannot be confirmed for the Federal Republic of Germany.
Conference on International Trade and Exchange Rates in the Late Eighties
The conference on International Trade and Exchange Rates in the Late Eighties was marked by a whole series of interesting papers on theoretical, economic-policy and empirical aspects of trade and exchange rates. Excellent overview papers on the current state and development perspectives of trade theory (Deardorff) and exchange rate theory (Branson) gave an introduction to the subject matter. L. Klein discussed the impact of an import surcharge, Steinherr inquired into the effects of the anticipated real $ devaluation on the European countries. Lastly, the paper by Crockett was worthy of note, which ventilated the causes and effects of exchange rate fluctuations and sees the need for surveillance by the IMF.