Issing, Otmar and Tödter, Karl-Heinz
and Herrmann, Heinz and Reimers, Hans-Eggert
Zinsgewichtete Geldmengenaggregate und M3 - Ein Vergleich
Scheide, Jochim
Output, Money, and the Terms of Trade in Germany - An Empirical Test of the Real Business Cycle Hypothesis
Becker, Wolf-Dieter
Lehren der theoretischen Wirtschaftspolitik zur deutschen Währungskonversion von 1990 - Ein nicht nur historischer Beispielsfall
Bigler, Max
Vom Umfang mit Prognosen und Prognoserisiken am Beispiel der Zinssätze und Wechselkurse - Eine Ãbersicht
Paul, Walter
Die Entwicklung und Bedeutung deutscher Aktien auf den Internationalen Kapitalmärkten
Scholtens, Lambertus J. R.
On the Foundations of Financial Intermediation: A Review of the Literature
Welcker, Johannes and Kloy, Jörg W. and Schindler, Klaus
Professionelles Optionsgeschäft - alles über Optionen auf Aktien, Renten, Devisen, Waren, Terminkontrakt (Hermann Naust)
Bofinger, Peter
Festkurssystem und geldpolitische Koordination (Stefanie Hamacher)
Issing, Otmar and Tödter, Karl-Heinz
and Herrmann, Heinz and Reimers, Hans-Eggert
"Interest-weighted money supply aggregates and M 3 - a comparison -"
In this contribution, interest-weighted money supply components and the summated simple M 3 are analyzed and compared. Such interest-weighting is guided by the opportunity costs of the monetary components, i. e. the minus in terms of interest compared with higher interest-bearing financial investments that do not serve liquidity purposes. Although aggregation and index-theory reasons indicate the need for a divisa aggregate, empirical evidence rather suggests the superiority of the simple M 3. Near-money supply, by contrast, is extremely sensitive to interest variations and is in no systematic way related to changes in the Gross National Product. This concept does not permit any reliable conclusions to be drawn for monetary expansion and industry's liquidity ratio.
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Scheide, Jochim
"Output, money, and the terms of trade in Germany - an empirical test of the real business cycle hypothesis"
The theory of real business cycles (RBC) interprets the often found link between
money and output as one of reversed causality: A broad monetary aggregate such as M1 Granger-causes output only because of the response of endogenous money to changes in the production possibilities in the economy while exogenous money is neutral. Quarterly data for the period 1964 - 1989 are used to investigate the validity of the RBC hypothesis for Germany. On the basis of variance decomposition results for various vector autoregressive systems, it is shown that first, the monetary base even currency have an impact on output, i. e. their innovations reduce the fore -error variance of output. This effect is at least as strong as the one stemming from real shock, i. e. changes in the terms of trade. Secondly, while the variables of endogenous money, such as the money multiplier and demand deposits, seem to have the strongest effect on output, they are themselves not dominantly influenced by real factors. In fact, monetary policy, e. g. a change in the monetary base, has a substantial impact, so the movements of endogenous money cannot be viewed as being solely a response of the public to real shocks. These findings are at variance with the RBC interpretation.
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Becker, Wolf-Dieter
"Economic theory lessons from the 1990 German economic and monetary union - not only an historical case "
Because of the paradigms of economic theory, lessons ought to be drawn from Germany's economic and monetary union which are of relevance for economic and monetary unions elsewhere and for other transformation tasks in East and West. The German case shows the great importance that is to be attached to observing theoretical interrelationships.
This contribution initially analyzes and criticizes the fact that system-theory knowledge developed over a number of decades have not been observed by economists and by most politicians. Moreover, the optimum monetary-area theorem was passed over lightly in this process of transformation; the previously possible solutions no longer stand a chance of being realized. The consequence is large-scale "classical" unemployment in the East as a result of lacking means of production and lacking flexibility. The enormous capital transfers caused thereby are used for satisfying increasing demand in the Keynesian sense. The demand focuses on Western-made products for the most part - a Sisyphean syndrome.
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Bigler, Max
"On the handling of forecast and forecast errors in the case of interest rates
and foreign exchange rates. A general approach"
This paper discusses the capabilities and limits of different methods designed to describe the 'confidence intervals' on interest and exchange rate predictions. In our opinion, there's no convincing approach yet in the market place that could match both scientific and practical demands. We actually apply a mixed approach which builds on polled expectation data and econometric projections. In times of notoriously biased prices it is indeed helpful to consider the 'correction processes' towards equilibrium-prices while describing the pattern of the expected forecast errors.
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Paul, Walter
"The Development and Importance of German Shares at the International Markets"
Against the background of various measures and efforts aiming at the attractiveness of the financial market place Germany and German stock the article shows at the beginning how these shares developed on international stock exchanges.
In this connection the question is as well scrutinized whether stock listings outside Germany are the final step of the Finance follows Trade Model, which reflects how flows of goods can be accompanied by financing measures. Experience evidenced that a correlation between stock listings and trade and flows of goods can be proved only partially, since a lot of German companies could make use of the heavily grown Euromarket. In addition German companies were confronted with regulations regarding a defensive admission practice of some stock exchanges which even prevented from listing.
In those eases where listings took place they were motivated financially as well as operationally and normally represented measures of targeted Investor Relations activities from which particularly the private investor benefitted because a listing enables him to follow a foreign stock in his own currency and to compare it with domestic shares. The globally operating institutional investors also welcome the stock listing, trade however on the stock exchange which is located in the country of the foreign company.
A special problem is still the listing in the United States where no German share is quoted on the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) since listing is doomed to failure because of the rigid attitude of the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC). This authority requires that financial statements of foreign companies have to be established in accordance with Generally Accepted Accounting Principles (GAAP) and not with the Home Rule. The consequence of such a procedure would be a misleading conglomerate of values which would improve neither the comparability nor the protection of the investor. Therefore German companies so far refused to adjust pointing out that the financial statements in accordance with the Accounting Directive Law are of equal quality.
Although German shares do not reflect the economic power of the Federal Republic of Germany they performed better than American and British shares on a long-term basis till 1991. Investor Relations activities might increase this performance yet.
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