KREDIT und KAPITAL - Issue 3/1996



Krämer, Jörg W.
Lassen sich zinsgewichtete Geldmengen steuern als herkömmliche Geldmengen?

Fehn, Rainer and Modery, Wolfgang
Können fixe Wechselkurse das Glaubwürdigkeitsproblem der Geldpolitik bei persistenter Arbeitslosigkeit lösen?

Schmid, Frank A.
Banken, Aktionärsstruktur und Unternehmenssteuerung (Teil I)

Neus, Werner
Börseneinführungen, Underpricing und die Haftung von Emissionsbanken


Bofinger, Peter
What Monetary Policy for the European Central Bank?

Book Reviews

Hansmeyer, Karl-Heinrich
Finanzierungsprobleme der deutschen Einheit II. Aufbau und Finanzierung der sozialen Sicherung (Alexander Spermann)

Lang, Franz Peter und Ohr, Renate
International Economic Integration. Studies in Contemporary Economics (Gudrun Peschutter)


Krämer, Jörg W.
"Are Interest-Weighted Monetary Aggregates Easier to manage than Traditional Ones"

This study measures the liquidity services provided by various monetary assets in terms of user costs, i. e. in terms of the interest that would arise to market participants when holding non-monetary assets instead of monetary ones. In order to aggregate monetary assets with the help of Cobb-Douglas and CES functions, the parameters of these functions, constant over time, are estimated with the help of data pertaining to the monetary assets and to the user costs. Time variable-weighted Törnqvist aggregates are directly ascertained from the quantitative and the price data. Manageability is interpreted to mean the accuracy with which the central bank is able to forecast future money supply trends. To begin with, the money supply multipliers calculated on the basis of various interest-weighted and traditional monetary aggregates are explained with the help of univariate Box-Jenkins models. Thereafter, transfer function models help to make additional use of the information that is included in the monetary base or the money-market interest rates. The results of the three prognosticating variants are not uniform. However, if it is assumed - which is realistic - that the Bundesbank attempts to manage money market interest rates instead of the monetary base, the sum aggregates turn out to be easier to manage. From among the interest-weighted monetary aggregates, the one based on Cobb-Douglas functions are the easiest to prognosticate of all of the variants examined.


Fehn, Rainer and Modery, Wolfgang
"Can Fixed Rates of Exchange solve the Credibility Problem of Monetary Policy in an Environment of Persistent Unemployment?"

One of the key questions of the stability-policy discussion is how to get the credibility problem of monetary policy adequately under control. An important proposal, which is the subject of a highly controversial debate, suggests that countries with elevated rates of inflation resort to fixed nominal rates of exchange vis-à-vis reserve-currency countries whose rates of inflation are lower. The advocates of this proposal argue that this helps reduce the inflationary bias at the cost of just a small rise in unemployment. This contribution shows that this is so in a model of natural unemployment. However, if it is assumed - which would be more realistic - that at least Europe is afflicted by persistent unemployment, any rigid monetary-policy rule such as fixed nominal rates of exchange does not necessarily help reduce the credibility problem of monetary policy. In such an environment, preference should rather be given to more flexible institutional arrangements possibly by creating a politically independent conservative central bank arrangements possibly by creating a politically independent conservative central bank which could only be outvoted by the government where the latter is prepared to assume substantial amounts of costs. However, such a central bank's monetary -policy credibility would largely depend from the functioning ability of the labour market as well.


Schmidt, Frank A.
"Banks, Shareholder Structure and Corporate Control (Part I) "

This study investigates the impact of shareholder structure on firm performance. Two samples of large German stock corporations are analyzed. It can be shown that equity positions of banks have a positive impact on firm performance in 1974. In 1985, however, no impact of banks can be identified that goes beyond the positive influence of nonbank blockholders. The hypothesis is rejected that there has been no structural change between these two periods. An analysis of the banks' supervisory board representation contradicts Edwards and Fischer (1994). These authors claim that the banks' proxy voting does not translate into board seats held by banks.

This paper is to be published in two parts. This first part presents the hypotheses that are to be tested. Also, it defines the variables for the empirical analysis and it describes the dataset. The upcoming second part will present the empirical results.


Neus, Werner
"Initial Public Offerings, Underpricing and Underwriter Liability "

Underpricing of initial public offerings may, inter alia, be explained by an informational advantage of certain investors whilst poorly informed investors are subject to winner's curse. Such underpricing may be reduced by improving the quality of the information available to poorly informed investors. Underwriter activities aimed at furnishing information and at certification are appropriate to this end as a matter of principle. The banks' liability for the truthfulness of prospectuses signals to investors that there are incentives to the bank for carrying out this kind of activities. It is demonstrated that this actually reduces underpricing (after litigation costs, where appropriate). A consistent argumentation also shows that unconditional insurance of investors may abolish any kind of underpricing: a solution irreconcilable with the predominant practice-based perceptions.