KREDIT und KAPITAL - Issue 2/2005


Contents


Articles

Graff Lambsdorff, Johann
The Puzzle with Increasing Money Demand - Evidence from a Cross-Section of Countries

Frey, Rainer
Welfare Implications of the Design of a Currency Union in Case of Member Countries of Different Sizes

Albrecht, Thomas
Kann das Finanzprodukt "Bausparen" wettbewerbsfähig sein? Überlegungen auf der Basis eines Overlapping-Generations-Ansatzes

Schneider, Sebastian
Übersicht zu einigen Zusammenhängen und möglichen Erklärungsansätzen ausgewählter Renditeanomalien an Aktienmärkten


Reports

Lütje, Torben and Menkhoff, Lukas
Fondsmanagement in Deutschland: Was denken und tun die Akteure?


Book Reviews

Grote, Michael H.
Die Entwicklung des Finanzplatzes Frankfurt. Eine evolutionsökonomische Untersuchung (Andreas Gontermann)

Hein, Eckhard and Heise, Arne and Truger, Achim (Hrsg.)
Neu-Keynesianismus . Der neue wirtschaftspolitische Mainstream? (Guido Zimmermann)


Summaries

Graff Lambsdorff, Johann
"The Puzzle with Increasing Money Demand - Evidence from a Cross-Section of Countries"

The ratio of money demand to GDP may increase with portfolio demand, monetization, and a deeper division of labor. Using a cross-section approach to money demand for 126 countries this study shows that the share of agriculture, life expectancy at birth, openness, and trust in the banking system capture a good deal of these influences. Once these variables are included, GNP per head negatively impacts on the ratio of money demand to GDP, which is in line with the standard result by Tobin and Baumol. (JEL E 41, C 21)

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Frey, Rainer
"Welfare Implications of the Design of a Currency Union in Case of Member Countries of Different Sizes"

In the study, the relevance of several optimum-currency-area (OCA) criteria is formally worked out in a welfare approach. The optimum monetary-policy rules of the supranational central bank are derived by employing the Barro-Gordon framework, and consideration is given to how the welfare of the member countries of a currency union is affected by symmetric and asymmetric national output shocks. The central-bank council may consist of a central-bank board and of a group of national central-bank presidents, where the national presidents are assumed to focus on their home economies. In a two-country framework, the countries are allowed to differ in size, and different degrees of labour mobility are addressed. The welfare implications are both deduced analytically and with the use of simulations. It is shown that relatively small member countries favour in a situation where the group of national central bank presidents is in a strong position while large countries prefer decisions to be taken by the central-bank board. The preferences are stronger the lower the degree of labour mobility. Besides, differences in the national monetary transmission processes as well as divergent national inflation and output preferences affect welfare. (JEL E 52, E 58, E 61)

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Albrecht, Thomas
"Can "Building-Saving" be Competitive as a Financial Product? Deliberations Based on an Overlapping-Generations Approach"

When assumptions are realistic, building-saving systems based on an overlapping-generations approach, under which the contributions of savers are made available to borrowers as lendings, represent - except in the launch phase of such systems - a less than optimal form of financing for all participants unless there are tax benefits or subsidies. On the other hand, building-savings is competitive, on principle, where building-saving institutions have been able to preserve the profits they have made in their launch phases and where the yields of such launch-phase profits are used for subsidising current lending conditions. When the interest cycle is taken into consideration, efforts to ensure fixed lengths of time that must have been elapsed prior to building-loan allocation mean that the attractiveness of building-saving fluctuates in the course of interest cycle and that, even where conserved launch-phase profits exist, competitiveness at any given moment can only been ensured with the help of public financial support. However, where the length of time prior to building-loan allocation is variable and where launch-phase profits are conserved, public financial promotion is not necessary.

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Schneider, Sebastian
"Abstract on a number of Correlations and Possible Explanatory Approaches to Selected Rate-of-return Anomalies in the Stock Market"

In the anomaly discussion, two explanatory approaches are diametrically opposed. On the one hand, market inefficiencies may result in the observed rate-of-return patterns. But it is also possible on the other hand that risk factors are the determinants of rate-of-return generation. However, the anomaly discussion neglects almost entirely the reliability allowing derogations of the CAPM to be identified. It follows therefrom that it cannot be precluded that rate-of-return anomalies represent just statistical artefacts. This contribution therefore systematises rate-of-return anomalies and introduces possible explanatory methods. It not only shows in a comprehensive manner index figure-related rate-of-return anomalies, but also correlations between the rate-of-return anomalies represented and possible explanatory approaches. In this context, the robustness of the anomalies to time-variable beta factors are testes and answers are attempted to whether selected index figures represent risk factors in a multi-factorial model or whether they represent anomaly factors.

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Reports

Lütje, Torben and Menkhoff, Lukas
"Fund Management in Germany: What do Market Actors think and do? "

This analysis is based on a written enquiry with 263 fund managers in Germany. These professional market actors visualize a marked herd instinct with other fund managers and a clearly psychological influencing of prices. By contrast, fund managers strongly rely on fundamental enterprise and market data as well as on discussions with colleagues and on technical analyses. To that extent, there is a discrepancy between markets deemed to be of poor efficiency and managers' own rationality. We have identified room for improvement in the following three areas: (i) a herd instinct reflecting conformism at the same time; (ii) substantial value attributed also to non-fundamental information; (iii) application of diverse investment strategies whose conditions basic to success have not in all cases been satisfied.

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