Sander, Harald
"Anpassung mit Wachstum" oder Schuldenerleichterung? Die theoretischen Grundlagen einer verstärkten Kooperation von IWF und Weltbank
Willms, Manfred
Der Delors-Plan und die Anforderungen an eine gemeinsame Europäische Geldpolitik
Sell, Frierdich L.
Beharrungsinflation und "heterodoxe" Stabilisierungspolitik: Erfahrungen aus Argentinien, Brasilien und Israel
König, Peter and Möller, Joachim
Abweichungen von der Ungedeckten Zinsparität. Ein Kalman-Filter Ansatz für den DM/ Dollar- und SFr/ Dollar-Wechselkurs
Asche, Henner
Anmerkungen zum Beitrag "Widersprüche in der Geldmengenpolitik der Deutschen Bundesbank" von H. Ribhegge
Atesoglu, H. Sonmez
A Rational Expectations Model of Inflation for West Germany: Evidence from Quarterly Data
Issing, Otmar and Masuch, Klaus
Leistungsbilanzsalden und Wirtschaftspolitik. Eine Replik
Arize, Augustine and Ndubizu, Gordian
Impact of the Terms of Trade on the Trade Balance of Malaysia: An Empirical Examination
Sell, Friedrich L.
Geld- und Währungspolitik in Schwellenländern, am Beispiel der ASEAN-Staaten. Ein Beitrag zu der Kontroverse zwischen âLiberalisierungsökonomenâ und âNeostrukturalistenâ
(Manfred Piel)
Galbraith, John K.
Die Entmythologisierung der Wirtschaft. Grundvoraussetzungen ökonomischen Denkens
(Michael Burchardt)
Bombach, Gottfried and Gahlen, Bernhard and Ott, Alfred E. (Hrsg.)
Geldtheorie und Geldpolitik
(Theresia Theurl)
Michaelis, Jochen
Optimale Finanzpolitik im Modell überlappender Generationen
(Hans-Hermann Francke)
Sander, Harald
âAdjustment Alongside Growth or Debt Relief? Theoretical Bases for Intensified Cooperation between the IMF and the World Bankâ
The Baker Plan and the new Structural Adjustment Facilities of the International Monetary Fund stress - for varying country groupings - the importance of external financing in support of a growth-oriented adjustment strategy of the highly indebted countries. This concept thus aims, inter alia, at more intensive cooperation between the IMF and the World Bank as well as at coordination of the conditions imposed by both institutions. This paper presents the theoretical bases of more intensive cooperation between the IMF and the World Bank. Proceeding from a presentation of the two institutionsâ rarely known programming models (financial programming and growth programming) that form basis of their policy to impose conditions, the paper discusses a synthesis model developed by the staff of both organizations and designed to provide the platform of a joint policy approach of the IMF and the World Bank. Subsequently, the paper demonstrates what role the socalled transfer of resources from developing to industrial nations plays in respect of the highly indebted countriesâ policies of growth and stabilization as well as how the synthesis model could be utilized for the purpose of debt relief programming. The paper concludes with a critical evaluation of these theoretical approaches.
top
Willms, Manfred
âThe Delors Plan - Requirements to be Fulfilled by Common European Monetary Policiesâ
The present contribution represents an attempt to subject to a critical review, from the German point of view in the main, the Delors report and the follow-up proposals made by members of the Commission of the European Community on the future shape of common European monetary policies. The first finding was that the political independence demanded by the Delors Commission for the European Central Bank System would probably be deficient. Contrary to the Commission's approach, it is proposed to consider more strongly a composition of the monetary decision-making bodies that is based on election processes within the central bank system rather than on appointment by politicians. In the interest of ensuring monetary stability, the definition of narrow bandwidths within which closely specified price indices would be allowed to vary and the introduction of incentive mechanisms to ensure observance of those bandwidths are deemed necessary. After a European Central Bank System has been established, money supply Aggregates should serve as interim targets both at the European and at national level. In the interest of avoiding the financing of budget deficits through money creation, refinancing of government debts by national central banks and by the European Central Bank System should be totally discontinued.
Concerning the future shape of the monetary management process, the present contribution demonstrates that a European Central Bank System based on mandatory ECU reserves planned as early as for stage 2 would not leave any scope any more for national monetary policies. In respect of the utilization of the European Central Bank System's profits, it is proposed to transfer such profits to the EC budget while accounting proceeds from national assets against the funding contributions the individual Member States are required to make.
In the concluding discussion on more comprehensive structural and regional policies as demanded by the Delors Commission in the interest of securing common European monetary policies as well as on the requirement for coordinated fiscal policies, the present contribution furnishes proof in support of the argument that there is no need for such measures.
top
Sell, Frierdich L.
âInertial Inflation and "Heterodox" Stabilization Policies: Experience Gained in the Case of Argentina, Brazil and Israelâ
At the roots of inertial inflation is the distribution conflict with indexation practices as the main guarantor of its existence. If the inertial inflation component is stronger than the impact of supply shocks and/or inflated demand, money supply is largely endogenized: expanding money supply is the consequence and not the cause of inflation. Empirical studies made in the case of Argentina, Brazil and Israel testify to the relevance of the inertial inflation component even though its weight is highly differential and has rarely been correctly diagnosed (diagnostic mistake) by responsible economic policy-makers. However, the "heterodox" stabilization programmes applied in those countries - that link up with the causes and guarantors of inertial inflation - failed, inter alia, over the neglect of important secondary requirements (Argentina, Brazil) and over the incomplete implementation of such programmes (therapeutic mistake).
top
König, Peter and Möller, Joachim
âDeviations from Uncovered Interest Parity - A Kalman-Filter Approach to the DM/Dollar- and the SFr/Dollar-Rateâ
The present paper analyses deviations from Uncovered Interest Parity by applying a Kalman filter method to the equations describing the determination 01 the Mark/ Dollar rate and the Swiss Franc/Dollar rate. According to the corresponding test results, the hypothesis of a time-varying systematic deviation from Uncovered Interest Parity has to be accepted for both exchange rates. Furthermore, the models allowing for variable coefficients are shown to out-perform the models with constant coefficients as well as the random walk approach in forecasting. An examination of the stochastic disturbances indicates that the shocks responsible f or the systematic deviations cover a wide range of economic and political issues.
top
Atesoglu, H. Sonmez
âA Rational Expectations Model of Inflation for West Germany: Evidence from Quarterly Dataâ
A rational expectations model is developed by using the quarterly data for West Germany. The theoretical model consists of a demand for money function and a Lucas supply function. This model is able to provide a satisfactory description of inflation in West Germany. The results indicate an almost one-to-one positive relation between inflation and anticipated growth in the money supply, and a negative relation between the unanticipated growth in the money supply and inflation.
top
Arize, Augustine and Ndubizu, Gordian
âImpact of the Terms of Trade on the Trade Balance of Malaysia: An Empirical Examinationâ
This paper presents estimates of the impact of changes in terms of trade on Malaysiaâs trade balance. The Almon lag procedure, Akaike final prediction error (FPE) and Theilâs residual variance criteria are used in the empirical estimation. The depend variable in the preferred equation is the ratio of the value of imports to exports whereas the explanatory variables are terms of trade in domestic currency, high-power money, weighted income of trading partners and a trend variable. The empirical results suggest that the lag pattern on the terms of trade variable is not that of the typical J-curve process. In addition, over the sample-period, 1973:1 through 1985:4 there was no evidence that deterioration in terms of trade improved the trade balance.
hoch