KREDIT und KAPITAL - Issue 4/1990



Brunner, Karl
Mephistopheles and Inflation

Berthold, Norbert
Internationale währungspolitische Arrangements - Ökonomische und polit-ökonomische Aspekte

Kirchgässner, Gebhard and Wolters, Jürgen
Sind die Realzinsen stationär? Theoretische Überlegungen und empirische Ergebnisse

Bhandari, Jagdeep and Genberg, Hans
Exchange Rate Movements and International Interdependence of Stock Markets

Hof, Franz Xaver
Staatsverschuldung als Quelle der Nicht-Neutralität. Ein Beispiel zum Ricardischen Äquivalenztheorem: Eine Verallgemeinerung

Gleske, Leonard
Auszüge aus der Gedankenrede für den 6. Februar 1989 verstorbenen Prof. Dr. Otto Pfleiderer


Menkhoff, Lukas and Sell, Friedrich L.
Treibende Kräfte und Synthesen in der Währungspolitik

Schmidt, Roland
Konstanzer Seminar on Monetary Theory and Monetary Policy

Book Reviews

Filc, Wolfgang und Köhler, Claus (Hrsg.)
Kooperation, Autonomie und Devisenmarkt
(Stefan W. Nuck)

Rösinger, Andrea
Geldangebot und monetäre Kontrolle in einem Entwicklungsland. Ein systemdynamisch-ökonometrisches Computersimulationsmodell für die Republik Kamerun
(Manfred Piel)

Jacob, Adolf-Friedrich und Förster, Gerhard
Die Wahl strategischer Standorte im internationalen Bankgeschäft – Absätze einer Theorie der Finanzplätze
(Jochen Michaelis)

Reisen, Helmut
Über das Transferproblem hochverschuldeter Entwicklungsländer
(Dieter Duwendag)


Berthold, Norbert
„International Monetary Policy Arrangements - Economic and Politico-Economic Aspects“

The turnaround toward nominally more stable exchange rates to be observed in monetary policy at present fits into a general historical pattern with two striking phenomenons: (1) Most national economies used to be linked together through some pattern of fixed rates of exchange. (2) Flexible exchange rates were only temporary phenomenon, and the general trend was towards returning to monetary systems with nominally firmer exchange rate relations. If, on the other hand, institutionalized monetary policy change invariable occurs at such moments when participants in economy and political markets exploit unutilized scope for profitmaking, it is conceivable that monetary policy arrangements change for economic and/or political reasons. But this presupposes answer to two questions: (1) Can economic theory explain the change to be observed in monetary systems or, to put it in different words, which monetary system would be optimal under economic aspects? (2) Provided there is an economically efficient monetary policy arrangement, will such arrangement be politically accepted in full, nationally and internationally, or are totally different factors responsible for determining the character of the monetary system?


Kirchgässner, Gebhard and Wolters, Jürgen
„Is Real Interest Stationary? Hypothetical Ideas and Empirical Results“

This contribution analyses nominal rates of interest and rates of inflation on the one hand and ex-post real rates of interest on the other with a view to establishing whether they are stationary in nature. To this end, three-months domestic and Euromarket rates of interests have been analysed for the United States of America, Switzerland and the Federal Republic of Germany on the basis of the flexible exchange rate data governing the period from 1974. It has turned out that all three quantities were non-stationary in character. Moreover, there was little evidence suggesting co-integration of nominal rates of interest and rates of inflation. All this is hardly compatible with the validity of the Fisher hypothesis. But it must be borne in mind that the assumptions made for inflationary expectations in the theoretical model have turned out to be highly unsatisfactory compared with actual inflationary developments, i. e. been subject to relatively big (prognosticating) mistakes, and that such mistakes tend to "inflate" also the variability of real rates of interest. "Better" results may only be expected from an "improved" coverage of inflationary expectations.


Bhandari, Jagdeep and Genberg, Hans
„Exchange Rate Movements and International Interdependence of Stock Markets“

This paper examines linkages between movements of stock prices and movements of exchange rates. In the first part, an empirical analysis using post-1974 data for seven industrialized countries establishes a number of regularities. Thus, nominal stock prices in these countries appear to be significantly correlated. In addition, real stock prices are also similarly correlated. At the same time, however, there appears to be no stable long-run relationship between nominal stock prices and nominal exchange rates. The second half of the paper constructs and analyzes a theoretical model which is capable of generating patterns of adjustment in real and nominal stock prices and exchange rates that are similar to those found in the data. The fact that short-run movements in stock prices are empirically positively correlated across countries can be used either to place restrictions on the parameter of the theoretical model or to show inferences about the nature of the underlying shocks. For example, in our model, shocks that are positively correlated across countries give rise to similar movements in endogenous variables such as stock prices. In turn, positive correlation of shocks can be the result of either active coordination of policies or of common disturbances such as worldwide productivity shocks. Common movements in stock prices could also come about in response to country-specific shocks provided that the transmission mechanism is appropriately specified. Finally, the model is also able to accommodate the empirical finding pertaining to the lack of a stable relationship between stock prices and nominal exchange rates. The paper concludes with some observations relating to further research in this area.


Hof, Franz Xaver
„Government Debt as a Source of Non-Neutrality - A Contribution to the Ricardian Equivalence Theorem: A Generalization“

Barro (1974) showed that an "operative bequest motive" implies the validity of the Ricardian equivalence theorem in models with overlapping generations. Michaelis (1989) proved that government is able to influence the operativeness of the bequest motive through fiscal policy management. Moreover, in spite of the bequest Motive, government has the possibility of working toward the "golden rule" of capital accumulation through appropriate budgetary deficits or surpluses. When presenting his evidence, Michaelis assumed for reasons of simplicity that both the consumer's utility function and the corporate-sector production function are of the Cobb-Douglas type. This contribution shows that the qualitative results obtained by Michaelis remain intact when assuming a relatively general and strictly concave utility function as well as a discretionary linear homogenous production function. As distinct from the Michaelis and other contributions, results are developed not only analytically, but also graphically. A simple diagramme is developed which determines the steady-state values of the interest rate and per-capita bequest with the help of two curves. This diagramme allows to see at one glimpse (a) under what conditions the bequest motive is operative, (b) how its operativenes can be influenced by the choice of governmental policy parameters and (c) in what way government must shape its fiscal policy in order to work toward the golden rule of capital accumulation.



Menkhoff, Lukas and Sell, Friedrich L.
“Driving Forces and Syntheses in Monetary Policy”

This contribution interprets former and potential world monetary systems of the future evolving in response to the driving forces in monetary policy: These forces include economic theories, past experience as well as market influences. The monetary system existing at a given moment represents a synthesis of various forces which - when drifting apart - are also responsible for destructing the respective system. All thinkable monetary systems have in common that their functionability depends either on compliance with firm "rules" or application of "discretion". Furthermore, the general validity of all monetary systems must be assessed by whether they meet certain requirements; they are thus comparable: balance-of-payments equilibrium, free convertibility of currencies, stability of exchange rates and adequate overall economic policy autonomy of participating countries are undisputed objectives A discussion of the four most important reform ideas published since the mid-1980s (worldwide money supply management, commodity price standard, indicators, target zones) shows that none of them is able to meet all requirements. In the authors' view, the socalled target zone proposal is the best by comparison. However, as contributions by economic theories to the "driving forces" all four of the above proposals have basically lived up to the monetary policy challenges of the late-198os insofar as they have both responded to and laid the basis for economic policy-makers' firmer will for cooperation.