Die Erfindungskraft des Bankiers im Dienste des internationalen Kapitalmarktes
Zu den Wandlungen der Marx'schen Geldlehre in der sowjetischen Ökonomie
Jüttner, D. J. and Tuckwell, R. H.
Partial Adjustment, Multiple Expectations, and the Demand for Money in Australia
Das Zahlungsbilanzgleichgewicht im Konjunkturverlauf
Die Bedeutung der Preiserwartungen für die Fristigkeitsstruktur der Zinssätze
Die Kursbildung auf dem Devisenmarkt und die Devisenterminpolitik (Manfred Willms)
Die Wettbewerbsfunktion der deutschen Sparkassen und das Subsidiaritätsprinzip (Wolf-Dieter Becker)
Brunner, Karl (Hrsg.)
Proceedings of the First Konstanzer Seminar on Monetary Theory and Monetary Policy (Eberhard Ketzel)
"The Banker's inventiveness in the Service of the International Capital Market"
The more perfect the international capital market, the greater are the services it performs for both the common good and individual interests. To this end it is necessary to encourage active motivations and reduce passive motivations of all involved. Those involved comprise on the one hand the market participants, that is, the providers and seekers of capital, and on the other hand those who establish the basic conditions, that is to say the national governments and central banks, and the international and supranational institutions. In applying their inventiveness in the service of the international capital market, bankers have to observe a number of action parameters. Apart from the parameters of liquidity, creditworthiness and the risk of exchange rate and interest rate changes, in particular the action parameter of standing plays a decisive role. Action parameters with special peculiarities are the preferences, with the sub parameters of preference creation and preference conservation on the one hand, and preference elimination, and preference dilution on the other. With regard to the points of application of the banker's inventiveness, known grounds for passivity of those involved must be rendered less virulent, know grounds their activity must be stressed, new grounds for activity must be found and invigorated, and the interest of new, potential actors on the international capital market must be awakened. Above all, however, it is necessary to anticipate expectations and adjust to them, and lastly to continue development of the institution of the banking entrepreneur, adapting it to the combination of tasks. In respect of the possible modes of behaviour of the banker, attention must be paid to three fields of action: First, bankers should participate in creating optimal basic conditions for the international capital markets. Secondly, all possible means must be exhausted of optimising the organization of the individual banking institution and the banking industry as a whole. The multiplicity of forms of mixed banking institutions and specialized banks will exert a favourable influence in this connection on the perfection of the market. In the third field of action, the issue is optimal minimization of market participants' risks. In the case of risks which may influence cost and yield accounting, bankers must endeavour to find a compromise between the interests of capital investors and capital seekers. In contrast, in the case of risks which jeopardize the very existence of capital market transactions, it is essential to safeguard that existence by way of credit and liquidity risk policy. Special importance attaches to the risks of exchange rate and interest rate changes. Despite the great variety of constructions and modes of behaviour on the international capital market, on the non-resident currency markets in particular there still remain substantial risks which can be countered only with an adequate amount of managerial common sense.
"On the Changes in Marxian Monetary Theory in the Soviet Economy"
In the decides since the establishment of a socialist order in Russia, there has been a fundamental change in the Soviet economy's relationship to money. Initially, in line with the orientation to the Marxian economic system, money was regarded as a capitalistic category which could only lead an interim existence in a socially ordered economy. But very soon (1920) Lenin declared money to be a necessary phenomenon under the given socio-economic conditions and encouraged the extension of relationships between commodities and money. Stalin not only continued to follow this line, but in addition gave the decisive impetus for the 'rehabilitation' of money from the standpoint of Soviet political economy. Since that time there is no further question of the demise of money; on the contrary, the necessity of its existence in a socialist economy of the Soviet type is emphatically stressed. For all that, no 'theory of Soviet money' has been conceived for the specific conditions of a socialist transitional economy, on the structure of which neither Marx nor Engel's formulated adequate propositions. Instead, the Marxian theory of money was employed for the interpretation of monetary phenomena of Soviet socialist economies; this procedure lead to a significant change in that monetary theory, raised considerable theoretical problems, and gave rise to a lively debate on the nature and functions of money in socialism. In the past few years, this debate has almost completely ceased. New impetus for a monetary theory debate may be imparted, however, especially by the reform conceptions advocated by the socialist countries of eastern Europe; for in those countries, deviating from traditional approaches in Soviet political economy, the question of money in socialism and relationship between commodities and money is being raised anew.
Jüttner, D. J. and Tuckwell, R. H.
"The Demand for Money in Australia"
This study has been mainly concerned with the relationships between the demand for money holdings, delayed portfolio adjustments and expectations regarding real income, interest rates and price level changes. Our finding suggest, that expectations with respect to real income, interest rate, and future price level changes significantly influence the demand for real money holdings. The application of the Almon distributed lag technique indicates that the expectations with respect to real income and interest rates are generated on the basis of the values of the respective variables over the present and previous six quarters. On the other hand it seems that inflationary anticipations are based on present price changes and those occurring over the previous four quarters only. The fact that price expectations appear to have had such a significant influence on the demand for money in Australia, irrespective of whether the last two or three years of accelerating inflation are taken into account or not, has definite implications for the future effective conduct of monetary management.
"Balance-of-Payments Equilibrium and the Trade Cycle"
In the light of the unsatisfactory experience with parity changes in the present international monetary system and the undesirable consequences of persistent disequilibrium of the balance of payments, a clear definition of the structure of the balance of payments is indispensable. In this connection, however, very important short-term factors such as the influences deriving from trade cycle impulses are often neglected. It would therefore seem to be necessary to include this aspect in the debate on balance-of-payments theory and policy. In this treatise an attempt is undertaken to analyse the influence of trade cycle fluctuations on the balance of payments and the consequences for foreign trade and, in particular, exchange-rate policy. However, it is limited to aspects affecting the principles and touches upon empirical matters only here and there.
First, the cyclical changes in the net positions of the competent parts of the balance of payments along the time path of the trade cycle are considered. The impact of trade cycle fluctuations on the balance of payments is that, in principle, all three component balances on current account (visible balance, invisible balance, transfer balance) tend to become more favourable in a similar manner, though to a differing absolute degree, in phases of relatively weak overall economic activity, but to become more unfavourable in phases of relatively great activity. The balance of payments in the sense of a "reduced basic balance" consequently tends towards surpluses induced by the trade cycle in the former case and deficits in the latter case. As a result it is necessary for the balance-of-payments diagnostician to isolate the trade-cycle influences on the balance of payments and to reach a "phase-related" judgment. In this way it becomes possible to obtain a cyclically neutral picture of the foreign trade situation and of the structure of the balance of payments at any given time, which in turn constitutes a decisive criterion for possible measures of balance-of-payments and, in particular, exchange-rate policy. A cyclical adjustment of the balance of payments is important so that an exchange-rate policy decision oriented to the current balance-of-payments situation is not misguided with regard to the scope and timing of a necessary correction. An example of a balance of payments greatly distorted by the trade cycle and of the danger of a consequent misjudgement is the case of the Federal Republic of Germany in 1970. It becomes clear how a phase-related balance-of-payments diagnosis can contribute to better timing of parity adjustments and help to reduce the extent of national disturbances and international distortions.
"The Importance of Price Expectations for the Term Structure of Interest Rates"
This article explains the term structure of interest rates on the basis of the equilibrium on the market for fixed-interest bearing securities.
First, a microeconomic explanation of the supply of end demand for long and short term bonds is given, using the portfolio theory approach. The individual market participant makes his decision on the issue as far as the maturity is concerned by maximizing his utility function. The respective arguments are the mean and variance of the probability distribution of portfolio yields, which in turn are dependent on the mean and variance of the anticipated future short-term interest rate. The anticipated interest rate is explained on the basis of the price expectations.
The microeconomic supply and demand functions are then aggregated. With allowances being made for the market equilibrium condition, this enables the interest structure to be explained.
This hypothesis is subsequently tested empirically with data for the Federal Republic of Germany. The quantitative results permit a statement on the degree of money illusion in the years from 1969 to 1971.