Die Geld-, Finanz- und Einkommenspolitik im volkswirtschaftlichen Systemzusammenhang
Ist Geld wirklich ein Produktionsfaktor?
Finanzintermediäre und Effektivität der Geldpolitik
Finanzinnovationen und Geldpolitik. Schlußfolgerungen aus einem erweiterten Finanzmarktmodell
Allsbrock, Odgen O. and Gilliam, Kenneth P.
A Cyclical Interpretation of Money
Bieg, Hartmut and Rübel, Markus
Ausweis und Bewertung von Devisen- und Zinstermingeschäften in Bankbilanzen - Teil I
Wichmann, Ralph B.
Zinsswaps als Spezialfall der Ricardianischen Tauschtheorie
Sind die Zinsprognosen von Finanzmarktexperten rational?
Das Kreditkartenverfahren. Konstruktion und Sicherung
Staatliche Exportsicherung. Die HERMES-Deckung vor dem Hintergrund der internationalen Verschuldungskrise
Einführung in die Geldtheorie
Monetary, Financial and Income Policy in a National Economic Policy Framework
The author discusses the divergence over the basically operations theory-oriented economic policy, especially of monetary, financial and incomes policy, after World War II. In the first part of his paper he describes the theoretical controversies over neoclassicism/neo-Keynesianism, monetarism/fiscalism and supply-side/demand-side management policies. He uses various problem definition, steering mechanism and determination criteria to characterize the controversial positions of the neo-classics and the neo-Keynesians. In the debate on monetarism versus fiscalism he stresses the different definitions of the value of money, of interest and employment. In the discussion on supply-side versus demand-side management policies he underlines the differing attitudes to government activity, diverging target priorities and the trust/distrust in the basic stability of economic processes. The second part presents the economic policy concepts reflecting this controversy in monetary, financial and incomes policy since 1948. The period under review is subdivided into three parts by the two recessions in 1966/67 and 1974/75. The first subperiod is referred to as a period of continuing strong economic growth. Monetary policy pursues a Keynesian anti-cyclical, financial policy a neo-classical concept aiming for varying economic policy goals, while incomes policy has a primarily microeconomic orientation. The second sub-period is characterized by reduced growth and rising inflation; it begins with the adoption of the Act on Economic Stability and Growth designed to allow a consistent Keynesian monetary, financial and incomes policy. However, this concept is consistently applied during a short period only; abrupt changes of policy direction and the inappropriate use of policy instruments expedite the speed of inflation. Contrary to the markedly short-term policy-orientation in this period a longer-term approach commences to hold its own after the 1974/ 75 recession in all three policy areas that began with monetary policy; it is noticeably supply-side-oriented in nature.
Money: Is it a Real Production Factor?
This contribution analyzes the microeconomic bases for including real balances in overall production functions. It turns out to be the case that real balances are not production factors in themselves, but a special product generated by financial transactions. For this reason, real balances can neither be substituted f or production factors nor is there any physical relationship between them and output. If real balance, when included as production factors in overall economic production functions, which is often done in economic writing, are empirically tested, a number of fairly complex interrelations between money supply and output are analyzed rather than their productive contribution. This empirical analysis of the interrelations between output and real money supply as well as labour and capital input at a macroeconomic level corroborates this analytical result. It has not been possible to prove the formula expressing the impact direction m = yr. This result obtained on the basis of the Hsiao procedure is compatible with theoretical model theories at the microeconomic level.
"Financial Intermediaries and Effective Monetary Policies"
The influence of financial intermediaries on the economy as a whole, which is just minor in importance from a monetarist point of view and is often neglected in highly aggregated Keynesian models, is discussed in liquidity theory-oriented model assumptions for "destabilization" and transmission effects. More recently, this subject has gained in importance as a result of structural change in financial markets caused by innovation. The model assumptions for the gross saving and investment account allow liquidity and interest effects to be derived. This approach, if confined to a system of financial claims, reduces the customary money multiplier analysis to multisectoral Leontief systems. In addition to an illustrative interpretation of portfolio shift-caused financial multipliers, an analytical framework for liquidity effects that may be empirically tested emerges as a result. If the analysis includes not only financial, but also real assets, this approach extends the standard model to include the sector of financial intermediaries as well, which may cause changes in interest rates as well as interest fluctuations in the transmission process. A simple IS-LM context finally allows a discussion of the monetary policy implications of the structural effects caused by the more recent innovative products financial intermediaries have offered. The empirical analysis confirms the relevance of a disaggregated analysis of highly variable financial multipliers. The Granger causality analysis also suggests the legitimacy of doubts about the feasibility of an "exact" monetary Aggregate and, thus, LM management, which is not unproblematic for current monetary policies in view of the declining interest elasticity of money supply.
Financial Innovation and Monetary Policy - Conclusions from an Extended Portfolio Model
The stimulus for financial innovation arises from the interaction of a changing regulatory environment, expanding technology, volatile markets, growing competition among financial institutions and shifting macroeconomic unbalances. Financial innovation and the associated structural change in the financial system may have far-reaching implications for the conduct of monetary policy directed to a growth target and for the relationship between monetary policy and the domestic macro-economy. This essay begins by outlining the individual effects of the financial innovation process on the definition of money, the supply of and demand for money, international capital mobility and the monetary transmission mechanism. Subsequently, some specific implications of financial innovations, e. g. the reduced variability of net payment flows or transformation costs between assets, are analyzed in an extended portfolio or asset approach, which emphasizes the role of portfolio balance considerations and is able to investigate systematically e.g. valuation (wealth) effects, expectation effects or aspects of induced currency substitution.
Allsbrock, Odgen O. and Gilliam, Kenneth P.
A Cyclical Interpretation of Money
This article develops a cyclical analysis of velocity as it varies over a stylized business cycle. Velocity varies historically in a predictable cyclical fashion, so the IS-LM paradigm is employed to illustrate why these changes are expected. A critical distinction lies in the difference between the stock of money and the flow of money. The former is exogenous, while the latter is endogenous and includes changes in velocity. The two phases of the cycle rationalized in this manner are disinflation and accelerating inflation. The expected effects on yield curves during these phases are drawn. Thus an attempt is made to subject the financial side of the economy (LM) to the same flexibility that the expenditure side of the economy (15) has been subjected by the alternative consumption/saving hypotheses.
Bieg, Hartmut and Rübel, Markus
Showing and Valuating Forward Exchange and Interest Rate Futures Deals on Bank Balance Sheets - Part I
Forward exchange and interest rate futures deals have at least two essential common characteristics: First, under the present financial presentation practices there is no chance of identifying them in credit institutions' annual financial statements. Second, both may either increase or reduce risks depending on the degree of hedging. At present, external earnings analyses are not or, at best, only partially capable of making this distinction of crucial economic importance and are ultimately distorted precisely for this deficiency. There is the danger that, as a reporting medium, the annual financial statement will sooner or later not be in a position any more to meet part of the functions assigned to it by the commercial law, if these types of deal, the significance of which is on the increase both in qualitative and in quantitative terms, fails almost completely to appear on annual financial statements and if the losses threatening to arise in connexion with such deals continue to be valuated in accordance with the single-asset valuation and the prudence principles - a method that is basically correct, but inappropriate in this context. This first of three parts of the study begins by sketching out the technical operations involved in selected forward exchange and interest rate futures deals (one variant of each in treading both on and off the floor. Section II), before it is possible to discuss the most important profit determinants (exchange and interest rate fluctuation, fulfilment risk) and to outline the interrelations of such determinants both with corresponding asset accounts and among themselves (Section III). This yardstick to measure the material risk structures is the one to be used when assessing the relevant accounting and financial presentation practices customarily applied at present (Section IV). The results obtained in this part of the study form the basis of alternative concepts to be explained in subsequent publications. In order to facilitate access to these extremely complex problems, part II will be confined to a discussion of balance-sheet aspects and risk-bearing elements in exchange and interest rates exclusively; this discussion will be extended to include in part III special aspects of forward exchange and interest rate futures deals stemming from the state of suspension of such deals.
Wichmann, Ralph B.
Interest Swaps as a Special Case of Ricardo's Value in Exchange Theory
This contribution discusses the analogy between interest swaps representing one of the most important forms of financial innovation and Ricardo's comparative cost theorem. Part I introduces the problem field resulting from the indeterminate nature of the financial flows caused by interest swaps in a setting of varied levels of absolute interest costs and relative interest cost differentials. Part II illustrates the approach employed to eliminate the phenomenon of reversing relative factor intensities and to define financial flows in an unambiguous manner in any given interest cost situation. The next part explains the fact, regularly observed in interest swaps, that a company with a relatively higher credit rating invariable has its comparative advantage in the fixed interest market segment. Part IV finally reaches the conclusion that interest swaps represent a special ease in Ricardo's value in exchange theory because of the above-described conceptual conditions and empirical findings. In the last part a flow chart gives the decisions made in interest swaps in a chronological order.
Are Interest rate Prognoses of Financial Market Experts Rational?
A analysis of survey-based interest rate expectations of financial market experts does not confirm the rational expectations theory according to Muth. It is true that survey respondents errors in interest rate prognoses are not attributable to errors in forecasting interest-relevant variables, but to deficient knowledge of factual operational relations between the dollar rate and/or money supply growth on the one hand and the formation of interest rates on the other. The respondent financial market experts have evidently not succeeded in quantifying the (varying) strength of the impact of these variables on the supply and demand behaviour of the different groups of investors and issuers and, thus, on the formation of interest rates. The result of this empirical analysis can be substantiated by structural expectations theories as well as the possible occurrence of irrational bubbles.